Potential for New Named Storm in the Atlantic

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A tropical disturbance traveling across the Atlantic might evolve into the next named storm this week. Forecasters are currently tracking two systems with potential for tropical development. As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted two areas in the Atlantic for possible tropical development. One area has a 70 percent chance of cyclone formation within the next week.

The NHC noted that, “Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.” If this system develops into a named storm, it would be the third of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and named Cristobal.

Meteorologist Nick Arman from AccuWeather informed Newsweek that the most probable intensity would be either a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm if the high-risk area develops. He mentioned that if the storm better organizes and avoids the dry surrounding air, the warm Atlantic waters could increase its intensity, possibly even reaching hurricane strength. However, Arman added this seems unlikely at present. The predicted time frame for formation is between August 12-15.

Chances of U.S. Impacts

The high-risk area might face several obstacles before impacting the United States directly or indirectly, according to Arman. As the tropical wave moves toward the northern Lesser Antilles late this weekend or early next week, it will likely encounter increased wind shear, which should limit its strengthening. It is possible the wave could be significantly weakened by the wind shear near the islands.

Arman further explained that a stronger wave is more likely to move north away from the Lesser Antilles, entering the open Atlantic and not impacting the U.S. Should the wave remain weaker, it might edge closer to the Southeast coast. A wall of wind shear stands in its path, which would likely disrupt the storm substantially if it persists. The system would approach the U.S. no earlier than the middle or later part of next week, allowing forecasters ample time to track its development. Currently, the risk of U.S. impacts is considered low.

Another disturbance in the Atlantic is being monitored, but as of Tuesday, the development risk is low. The NHC has identified a trough of low pressure several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda. This system may experience limited development as it moves eastward across the central subtropical Atlantic. Cooler waters are expected to hinder its potential for further development by Thursday.