Midterm Elections: Shift in Governor’s Races in Nebraska and Kansas

One week before the midterm elections, The Cook Political Report has altered the outlook of two gubernatorial races in favor of Democrats in the Midwest. Nebraska and Kansas, states won easily by President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, show changes in their races. The Nebraska gubernatorial contest has shifted from likely Republican to lean Republican, while the Kansas race has moved from lean Republican to a toss-up.

Midterm elections are often considered a reflection of the political climate affecting the party in power, and historically, the president’s party loses seats during these elections. Donald Trump won Kansas and Nebraska in the 2024 presidential election, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s approval ratings on key issues, such as the economy, immigration, jobs, and the ongoing war in Iran, have declined due to rising affordability concerns across American households.

In Kansas, the governor’s race has become more competitive as the state’s U.S. Senate contest heats up between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Cook Political Report supports the change, citing internal polling from Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher’s campaign. While Republicans remain optimistic about flipping the governor’s seat, the race’s volatility forces it into a more competitive category. Ty Masterson, backed by Trump, leads in most polls against Holscher. Holscher expressed optimism about the Cook report on X, emphasizing the momentum in her campaign despite significant spending against her.

In Nebraska, internal polling results and a crowded ballot have influenced the governor’s race shift. Rick Beard of the Legal Marijuana Now Party and Brett Lindstrom of the America First Party are competing alongside the primary candidates. Incumbent Jim Pillen, supported by Trump, leads in recent polling. The presence of America First and Legal Marijuana Now candidates might impact the election outcome.

Sophie Mestas, spokesperson for Democratic nominee Lynne Walz’s campaign, emphasized the significance of the shift, stating it reflects Nebraskans’ needs for a governor focused on public interest rather than special interests. With a week remaining, Walz continues to gain support statewide.

In the broader context, Cook Political Report suggests Democrats could gain between two to four gubernatorial seats in this election cycle. Republicans have held the majority of governor offices for the past two decades, except for a brief Democratic tenure from 2007 to 2011. Out of the 36 top state positions on next week’s ballot, both parties currently hold 18 each.

In Nebraska, a recent YouGov survey found Walz trailing Pillen narrowly. Pillen has substantial support in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. In Kansas, polls show Masterson, backed by Trump, slightly ahead of Holscher, with similar leads reflected in prediction market data.