Tom Kean Jr.’s Odds of Re-Election in NJ-07 Fade Amid Absence

New Jersey Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr. is experiencing declining prospects for re-election in November. His unexplained medical absence has cast doubt on his campaign. Recent data from prediction markets and election forecasters reveal that Kean’s slim lead in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District has diminished. The race is now widely viewed as uncertain.

Kean has been absent for over 100 votes in Congress. His last public appearance was on March 5. In April, Kean mentioned a ‘personal medical issue’ on his social media platform, X. Despite this, Kean runs unopposed in the Tuesday primary for the Republican nomination. Democrats, however, have several candidates vying to turn the district in their favor.

Contact efforts with Kean’s campaign were made by Newsweek via email outside regular hours.

Polls and Betting Odds

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, states the Democratic Party holds a 75% chance of winning the seat. The Republican Party has 14% odds. In contrast, a week before Kean’s last appearance, polls gave him a 46% chance of winning over a 43% chance for Democrats. By March 5, Democratic odds were at 55%, with Republicans in the mid-40s.

Kalshi, another betting platform, suggests similar odds, with Democrats at 78% and Republicans at 22%. Earlier in March, Democrats had a 59% chance versus 46% for Republicans.

Four Democrats Competing in Primary

Four Democrats are competing in the primary: former Small Business Administration official Michael Roth, ex-Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett, businessman Brian Varela, and ICU doctor Tina Shah. An internal poll by the 314 Action Fund, which supports Shah, shows her leading Kean 46% to 43% in a potential general election. Post-survey promotion of both candidates saw Shah rising to 49%.

The poll was conducted May 24–26, though the margin of error was undisclosed. Nonpartisan election analysts foresaw a tight race even before Kean’s absence, with the Cook Political Report moving the district from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” in November 2025.

Kean’s Absence from Congress

Kean’s office attributes his absence to a ‘personal health matter’ with no clear return timeline. Opponents argue that voters need more information. On March 5, Kean last voted in support of the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act. He did not return to Congress when it reconvened.

On April 27, Kean reassured his constituents via X about a full recovery and a return to his duties. House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke with Kean on April 23 and shared his assurance of Kean’s recovery.

Democratic candidates have used Kean’s absence to highlight concerns about district representation.

Democrats Aim to Flip NJ Seat

The 7th Congressional District in New Jersey, covering a large northern and central area, is fiercely contested. It includes Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. Although Donald Trump narrowly won the district by one point in 2024, its political allegiance has swung between parties the past two elections. Republican Leonard Lance lost to Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2018, who then lost to Kean in 2022.

The district was redrawn to favor Republicans after the 2021 census. Following the June 2 primary, the general election is set for November 3, 2026.