Potential Impact of Hurricane Marie on Southern California

Future Path of Hurricane Marie

The exact trajectory of Hurricane Marie remains uncertain at this time. Forecasts suggest that while the likelihood of a hurricane-strength direct landfall in California is minimal, Southern California could still face impacts over the Labor Day weekend. These impacts include potential showers, increased humidity, large waves, and dangerous rip currents affecting south-facing beaches.

Where Marie Might Hit

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UC, reports a low probability—only 10%—of a direct tropical storm landfall in California. However, he also mentions a 20% to 25% chance of experiencing heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, potentially leading to flooding. Conversely, there is a similar 20% to 25% chance of no rain at all occurring.

Most computer models indicate Hurricane Marie may take a path veering to the west of Baja California, heading into open ocean. Robbie Berg from the National Hurricane Center notes that while Marie is most likely to move northwest away from land, a slight possibility exists for a northern shift, possibly impacting Southern California.

As of early Wednesday, Marie remains a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. It was positioned about 1,300 miles southeast of San Diego on Tuesday night and is expected to become a hurricane shortly. By Sunday, its position should be about 775 miles southwest of San Diego, with an anticipated weakening over the weekend.

Plausible Rainfall for Southern California

The National Weather Service’s Oxnard office highlights a low probability of moderate-to-heavy rain with flooding and thunderstorms. However, there is a moderate chance of light rain affecting outdoor events and possibly causing coastal flooding on south-facing shores. People with outdoor plans should consider backup arrangements from Sunday through Tuesday.

Forecasts reveal a 50% to 60% likelihood of light rain affecting holiday events during this period, with only a 10% to 20% chance of widespread moderate-to-heavy rain causing localized flooding. The prevalent scenario appears to involve warm, humid conditions with light showers, and the possibility of monsoonal thunderstorms in mountainous and desert areas.

In San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties, widespread shower activity is anticipated through the weekend, with the highest chances expected on Sunday due to incoming mid-level tropical moisture. Rain contributions are expected to be less than 1 inch.

Rain possibilities extend to the San Joaquin Valley, Mojave Desert, and Sierra Nevada regions. However, along the coast, it is unlikely that significant rain from Marie will reach north of the Central Coast. Nevertheless, swells from the south may affect the Central Coast and Bay Area, with a high probability of large waves and strong rip currents over the holiday weekend.

The weather service advises beachgoers to ensure the presence of lifeguards and warns against the risk of ocean drownings. Peak swells are expected on Sunday and Monday. Marie’s proximity to the Baja California peninsula is set to send strong waves and rip currents to Southern California over the weekend.

The weather service emphasizes safety: keeping back from the water’s edge, never turning one’s back to the ocean, and staying off rocks and jetties.

Coastal Flooding Risks

While less certain, potential coastal flooding could occur as large surf combines with higher-than-normal tides during the Labor Day weekend. Areas prone to high surf and potential flooding include Alamitos Peninsula in Long Beach, Malibu, Point Mugu, Avalon on Catalina Island, and possibly portions of Santa Barbara.

Fire Weather Concerns

Unexpectedly, there is a scenario wherein Hurricane Marie could escalate fire weather danger. This could occur through the development of gusty offshore winds before the rain’s arrival. Such conditions may result in increased wildfire risks and downed trees, according to Kristan Lund of the Oxnard weather service office. A 10% to 15% probability exists for moderate-to-strong winds originating from the east.

Notably, there is high confidence in fire weather conditions affecting the Santa Ana and San Bernardino mountains, the Inland Empire, and the mountains of Riverside and San Diego counties, as well as the desert regions.

Continuing Updates

With potential for significant forecast changes caused by even minor shifts in Marie’s direction, forecasters strongly recommend staying informed on developing conditions.