Peltola’s Lead in Alaska Senate Race Presents Challenge for Sullivan

Democrat Mary Peltola has increased her lead in the polls over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska with a 6-point advantage three weeks before Election Day. Former U.S. Representative Peltola’s lead comes ahead of a visit from President Donald Trump to Alaska to support Sullivan. While Sullivan previously benefited from his relationship with Trump, he now faces challenges due to Trump’s declining popularity in Alaska.

Despite accusations from former staffers about using slurs and having outbursts during her time in the House, Peltola has addressed these claims, explaining that personal grief played a role. Democrats are eyeing Alaska to help regain control of the Senate on November 3, along with other states such as Texas and Maine.

“Mary welcomes any President visiting the state to hear about the issues Alaskans are facing, and she looks forward to working with President Trump to unleash Alaska energy and lower costs for when she’s elected to the United States Senate,” a campaign spokesperson told Newsweek. “It doesn’t matter who flies in to try and save Dan Sullivan from his record, Alaskans will still hold him accountable for his price hiking agenda this November.”

As Sullivan faces criticism for his support of policies and the war in Iran, Peltola is engaging with Alaskans to discuss plans to reduce costs and tackle corruption.

Latest Polls

The most recent polls from InsiderAdvantage, involving 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and October 10, show Peltola with 48.2% of the vote in the first round against Sullivan’s 42.6%. In Alaska’s ranked choice voting final round, Peltola would win with 50.1% to Sullivan’s 48%. Another poll from Alaska Survey Research conducted from October 1 to October 3 indicated Peltola leading with 51% to Sullivan’s 49% in the final round.

Peltola maintains a slight lead in most polls, despite the state traditionally voting GOP in federal elections. “Alaska is impacted by the good Democratic environment just like so many other states are, and Peltola is a strong challenger,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told Newsweek.

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets show a widening gap between the candidates. Polymarket’s odds in August were about equal for both candidates, but now show Peltola’s chances at 72.5% compared to Sullivan’s 28.5%. On Kalshi, Peltola stands at 75% and Sullivan at 27%, indicating stronger market confidence in Peltola’s chances despite tighter poll numbers.

Trump’s Alaska Rally

President Trump plans to continue his midterms campaign tour in Wasilla, Alaska, to support Senator Dan Sullivan’s reelection. “President Trump’s rally on Oct 13th will highlight exactly why Senator Dan S. Sullivan is the firewall to defend Alaska’s future,” stated RNC spokesman Nick Poche.

While Trump won Alaska in 2024, his approval has declined since 2026, with concerns about the cost of living and the war in Iran, which Sullivan supports, affecting local sentiment. Vice President JD Vance has also campaigned for Sullivan, claiming Democrats may resort to desperate measures to win the midterms.

Importance of the Alaska Senate Race

Republicans have held both Senate seats in Alaska since 2014. With Senator Lisa Murkowski not up for reelection, Democrats aim to flip Sullivan’s seat to gain a majority in the Senate. Peltola, with her previous federal office experience, is seen as a viable challenger amid declining GOP sentiment since 2024.

For Republicans, there’s hope Sullivan can retain his seat, bolstered by Trump’s past support and Sullivan’s previous election performances. The upcoming rally serves as a critical test of Trump’s influence in Alaskan elections.