Dan Sullivan Faces Tough Reelection Campaign Against Mary Peltola

Six years ago, Dan Sullivan stood in a favorable position during the final stretch of his reelection campaign. He had a clear lead in the polls, enjoyed a positive political climate, and faced an opponent lacking statewide election victories. Now, his situation has changed significantly as he competes for a third Senate term in Alaska. Sullivan trails Democrat Mary Peltola in various polls and navigates a less favorable environment.

Polling averages from RealClearPolling show Peltola ahead by two points. A recent New York Times/Siena survey gives her a 7-point lead, illustrating a dramatic shift from October 2020 when Sullivan led Al Gross, an independent candidate, by eight points in the same survey. Sullivan eventually won by 13 points.

On Monday, Vice President JD Vance supported Sullivan’s campaign by attending a rally in Fairbanks alongside him. Despite current polling, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) expressed confidence in Sullivan’s victory. They criticized allegations made by former Peltola staffers who claimed she had angry outbursts and used slurs.

Mary Peltola wished a fellow Alaskan died of a botched abortion, got zero bills signed into law, pushed the far-left to keep energy production shut down, then cashed out as a Lower 48 lobbyist. Peltola puts Alaska last and her Lower 48 donors first,

NRSC Regional press secretary Nick Puglia stated to Newsweek. Peltola’s campaign responded, accusing Sullivan of increasing everyday costs for Alaskans.

An Alaskans for Mary spokesperson commented,

After tripling his wealth in the Senate and voting fourteen times for the war in Iran that has caused an affordability crisis for Alaskans, it’s not surprising that Dan Sullivan and his DC backers resort to lies about Mary’s record of delivering for Alaska. Mary will win this November because Alaskans know she’s an independent voice who will stand up to anyone, including her own party, to lower costs, tackle the rigged system in DC, and put Alaska first.

Newsweek reached out to Sullivan’s campaign for comment.

Challenges for 2026 Compared to 2020

Alaska polling has historically underestimated Republican performance. However, Sullivan faces a weaker position than he did at the same time in 2020. Six years ago, he maintained a consistent lead over Gross, according to RealClearPolling. A Democrat-leaning pollster, PPP, showed Sullivan with a 5-point lead in July 2020. This increased to 8 points in a Times/Siena poll conducted in October.

Sullivan ultimately achieved 54 percent of the vote compared to Gross’s 41.3 percent. Gross ran as an independent but received Democratic endorsement. He highlighted his background as a doctor and fisherman over political affiliations, focusing on independence from major parties.

By late summer and early fall of 2020, some Democrats anticipated Alaska could be a surprise win. Gross raised significant funds, and polls showed narrow margins. Sullivan benefited from Alaska’s Republican lean and Donald Trump’s popularity.

Looking to 2026, the relationship between Sullivan and the president, whose approval has declined, might be impacting the senator negatively.

Peltola’s Unique Challenge

Peltola presents a new challenge for Sullivan. She held Alaska’s sole House of Representatives seat from 2022 to 2025, demonstrating her capability to win and maintain a federal seat as a Democrat.

Since 2020, the political climate has shifted. Trump performed well among his supporters and the GOP in 2020, holding key states during the presidential election. Despite allegations of her outbursts due to personal grief, Peltola leads in the polls over Sullivan, who collaborates with the White House on state investments. On Tuesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised its Senate race ranking in Alaska from a toss-up to “Leans Democratic.”

Alaska is impacted by the favorable Democratic environment like many other states, and Peltola is a strong contender,

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor, told Newsweek. He added that Alaska’s top-four, ranked choice voting system, not present in 2020, likely benefits Peltola as the ballot’s sole Democrat.

Reasons Republicans Believe Sullivan Can Succeed

Sullivan still possesses a legitimate chance to retain his Senate seat, partly due to his political background. Since his Senate election in 2014, he hasn’t lost a statewide race and was underestimated during the 2020 cycle before defeating Gross.

Alaska poses unique polling challenges due to its vast geography, making surveys costly. The state remains a key Republican area at the federal level, holding Senate and House seats under GOP control. Trump fared well in 2024, winning by a substantial margin, yet shifting public sentiment might affect future outcomes.

Republicans continue to support Sullivan, including the president and Vance, who joined him at a rally on Monday. Super PACs backing Sullivan use television ad campaigns to spotlight the allegations against Peltola. They aim to direct voter focus on these issues.

The central question in the race is whether Alaska’s Republican inclination can propel Sullivan through adversity, or if Peltola can transform her House-electing coalition into Senate victory.