Trump’s Political Sway in Latin America’s Elections

President Donald Trump enjoys not only campaigning for Republican candidates but also cheering for their electoral victories. In Latin America, Trump is seeing notable political wins. Over the past eighteen months, right-wing politicians have secured presidential victories in seven nations in the region Washington often calls its backyard.

In Honduras, Trump’s influence included a tacit threat to cut U.S. aid if his choice didn’t win. Meanwhile, in Argentina, he offered a $20 billion currency swap as incentive for voters to bolster President Javier Milei’s legislative support. Trump expressed satisfaction recently, noting, “Everybody I’ve endorsed has won… a lot of wins; we’re winning a lot.”

After the latest election, Trump is closer to yet another victory in the region. In Brazil, Latin America’s largest nation, voters cast ballots for the presidency. Flávio Bolsonaro, former President Jair Bolsonaro’s son, received 47.03% of the vote, compared to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s 45.16%. Both must face a second round on October 25, as no candidate achieved the necessary majority.

Bolsonaro is the favorite, given the support from other right-wing candidates who did not reach the final tally. Lula, running for a fourth term, must attract moderates and disenchanted voters, or Trump may gain another ally.

Brazil-U.S. relations have been rocky, especially during Biden’s administration. Issues like Bolsonaro’s stance on the Amazon or his rhetoric against marginalized communities strained relations. Concerns about Brazil’s growing trade ties with China under Bolsonaro heightened tensions, leading to Biden sending the CIA to warn Bolsonaro against election interference.

Trump’s rapport with Lula, the prominent left-wing figure credited with aiding Brazil’s transition from military dictatorship, hasn’t been favorable either. While the international relationship isn’t severed, shared motivations and personality clashes are evident. Trump’s administration emphasizes America’s leadership in the hemisphere, a sentiment Lula considers imperialistic.

Lula advocates for multi-alignment and strengthening ties globally to reduce Brazil’s reliance on single nations. These differing perspectives inevitably clash. Trump has utilized U.S. economic measures to assist Jair Bolsonaro, including imposing 40% tariffs on some Brazilian imports. He justified this as a counter against the perceived persecution of Bolsonaro by Brazil’s justice system.

The tariffs inadvertently encouraged Brazil to enhance trade with China, maintaining access to wider markets. Although Trump withdrew some tariffs, hoping to curb U.S. grocery costs, Brazil’s election cycle witnessed further contentious moves from Washington. Politically motivated maneuvers, such as designating major Brazilian criminal groups as terrorist organizations and issuing more tariffs, were criticized by analysts and Lula alike.

U.S. State Department plans to discuss election integrity in Brazil led to diplomatic tension, as Brazil barred officials from entry, suspecting U.S. intentions to undermine their voting system. The Trump administration revoked the Brazilian ambassador’s visa in retaliation against Brazil’s perceived obstruction of Trump’s envoy.

Trump has not openly endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, yet he clearly favors a younger, far-right president over a member of the leftist establishment. Bolsonaro promises policies that align with Trump’s agenda, from participating in the Shield of the Americas coalition to shifting Brazil’s foreign relations westward.

Trump desires in Brazil what he has in Venezuela: an ally willing to follow Washington’s lead. Considering Brazil’s more significant influence relative to Venezuela, its next president could challenge U.S. directives more effectively. Trump may face disappointment regardless of the upcoming election’s outcome.

Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Tribune. Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email [email protected].