Trump’s Call for Nobel Peace Prize

President Donald Trump has reiterated his desire for the Nobel Peace Prize, highlighting his contributions to international conflict resolution. He acknowledged the possibility of not receiving the award, stating, “I don’t know what their decision is going to be. They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me.” Trump claims to have “settled eight wars” and saved “millions and millions of lives,” though some involved parties question his diplomatic role, and conflicts persist. Notably, the war in Ukraine remains unresolved.

Prediction Markets and Current Odds

Despite Trump’s assertions, prediction markets focus on other contenders. On Thursday, humanitarian groups and activists led positions on Kalshi, with Trump’s contract showing about a 1 percent implied probability. Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms held the top spot at 15 percent, followed by Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine at 10 percent, and Save the Children at 7 percent. These prices reflect traders’ expectations, not insights from the Norwegian Nobel Committee, which keeps nominations and deliberations confidential. The committee received 287 candidates for 2026, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations.

Humanitarian Focus in Prize Predictions

Michael Doyle, a Columbia University professor and former U.N. assistant secretary-general, stated that humanitarian groups often receive the prize due to their non-controversial nature and life-saving work. He noted that political candidates face challenges related to limited genuine peacemaking and the controversies tied to negotiations. Uncertainty remains high in prediction markets, with Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms trading at about 15 percent despite leading the competition.

Top Contenders for the Nobel Peace Prize

The dominant contenders over Trump on Kalshi include humanitarian organizations, child advocates, democracy campaigners, and international bodies. The market remains dynamic, with a 15-cent contract signifying roughly a 15-percent market-implied probability.

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

Leading on Kalshi, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms reflect a 15-percent probability. These networks, providing aid during Sudan’s civil war, illustrate a trader preference for groups focusing on direct humanitarian assistance amidst crises. PRIO lists them due to their impactful aid efforts.

Mykola Kuleba and Save Ukraine

Kuleba, Save Ukraine’s founder, holds a 10-percent market prediction. Save Ukraine, established in 2014, aids displaced Ukrainian families and rescues children abducted by Russia. PRIO’s list includes Kuleba and Save the Children, pointing to their work on behalf of children in conflict zones.

Save the Children

Trading at about 7 percent on Kalshi, PRIO praises Save the Children for its child protection initiatives in war areas. They advocate through field programs, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding children through its distinguished efforts.

Other Candidates

Yulia Navalnaya, at approximately 5 percent, leads the Anti-Corruption Foundation and has emerged as a key critic of the Kremlin. The International Court of Justice appears with a 4-percent probability, respecting its role as the leading judicial UN body. The Committee to Protect Journalists, with a 3-percent market prediction, focuses on supporting imprisoned journalists. Other notable candidates include Doctors Without Borders, the International Space Station, and influential figures like Canadian PM Mark Carney and Pope Leo XIV.

PRIO’s list does not disclose connections to the Nobel Committee or insider information, offering perspective on likely candidates rather than definitive outcomes.

Nobel Peace Prize Announcement Details

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will reveal the 2026 laureate at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo at 5 a.m Eastern time. Oslo hosts the award ceremony on December 10.

Trump’s Nominations and Prize Controversies

The Nobel Committee does not confirm current nominee names, leaving media-driven names speculative. Leaders from Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan claimed to have nominated Trump, though confirmations remain elusive.

Trump advocates for his peace efforts, noting, “I’m not bragging. I’m just telling you the facts. No president probably has settled any wars. I settled eight wars, and big ones.” He criticizes the Nobel Committee for awarding former President Obama the prize in 2009, suggesting his own track record’s recognition is necessary for the committee’s credibility. Trump received indirect association to the prize when Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented him her Nobel medal in January.

Haakon Gjerløw, acting director of PRIO, reflected on last year’s award repercussions and its potential impact on current considerations. He stressed the importance of evaluating whether awarding Trump could be more harmful than beneficial. Machado was honored in 2025 for advancing democratic rights in Venezuela and contributing to peaceful transitions. In 2024, Nihon Hidankyo received acclaim for promoting a world free from nuclear arms, showing witness testimony’s power in crafting peace-focused narratives.