Trump’s Approval Rating Faces Challenges Ahead of Midterms

With three months remaining before the midterm elections on November 3, recent polling indicates President Donald Trump confronts a more challenging political landscape than earlier in his second term. State-specific data reveals Trump is trailing in every swing state, making minor shifts in voter opinion potentially crucial for determining control of Congress in November.

The data originates from Civiqs’ online rolling tracking poll, comprising 120,580 responses from registered voters. A Newsweek analysis contrasts Trump’s approval rating on July 30, 2026, with its status on January 20, 2025, the start of his second term. Net approval is calculated as the difference between approval and disapproval ratings.

The White House emphasizes Trump’s 2024 election win as a clear indicator of public support, arguing that voters endorsed the administration’s agenda.

Key Points

Nationally, Trump’s approval rating is 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving, resulting in a net approval of -23. The state-by-state overview mirrors this pattern: strong approval in Republican territories, deeply negative in Democratic areas, and unfavorable in the battleground states likely to influence midterm results.

Several states that began Trump’s second term with positive net approval now show negative ratings. The most significant declines have occurred in Republican-leaning states, which once served as Trump’s strongest backing. Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among Trump’s weakest support groups.

Brett Loyd, cofounder of the Independent Center, stated Trump’s position as ‘pretty rough,’ citing a ‘collapse among the middle third of the electorate’ as a challenge for Republican candidates. However, he warned that dissatisfaction with Trump might not automatically translate into Democratic support.

Comparison with Previous Midterms

At a similar point before the 2022 midterms, Joe Biden’s approval was 36 percent with a disapproval of 55 percent, resulting in a net rating of -19. Both presidents faced more disapproving than approving voters before their first midterm elections. However, Trump’s current figures are notably weaker than before the 2018 midterms, where he had a net approval of -10 compared to -23 now.

Demographic Data Insights

Demographic breakdowns nationally help explain state-level trends. Trump remains weakest among voters aged 18 to 34, with approvals as low as 22 percent compared to 72 percent disapproval. For voters aged 35 to 49, the figures stand at 29 percent approval and 63 percent disapproval. Among independents, 28 percent approve, while 64 percent disapprove.

Women disapprove by a 65-to-30 margin, whereas men are divided at 53 percent disapprove to 42 percent approve. Educational attainment also divides opinions; among postgraduates, 24 percent approve against 72 percent disapproval, whereas among non-college graduates, the gap closes to 39 percent approve and 55 percent disapprove. These demographics clarify Trump’s better performance in conservative states and challenges in battleground and metropolitan areas.

Strong Support in Deep Red States

Trump’s strongest numbers are found in staunchly Republican states. Wyoming and North Dakota show net approval ratings of +19, followed by West Virginia at +15, Alabama at +13, and Idaho at +13. Nonetheless, even these states have seen approval erosion since his second term started. For example, Wyoming declined from a net approval of +47 to +19.

Challenges in Swing States

Swing states remain a significant issue for Republicans, with Trump underwater in all major battlegrounds. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and others show stark disapproval ratings. For instance, Florida moved from a net approval of +9 to -12, and Ohio shifted from +8 to -13 since the start of Trump’s second term.

Decline in Approval

Every state in the tracker shows a lower net approval than on January 20, 2025. The most significant declines are in states where Trump initially had strong support, such as Kentucky, Wyoming, and Oklahoma. In many cases, these represent substantial shifts, reflecting voter fatigue with constant political drama.

Consistent Negative Ratings in Democratic States

In Democratic-leaning states, Trump’s weakest ratings remain firmly entrenched. Hawaii, Vermont, and Maryland show the lowest approval levels. The decline in ratings is less dramatic here, as these states began with low support at the start of Trump’s second term.

A Mixed Picture

The current map shows many states clustered near the line between positive and negative territory. Indiana, Nebraska, and others illustrate the narrowed margins at the state level, suggesting a familiar partisan geography but with smaller cushions.

White House’s Position

White House spokesman Davis Ingle emphasizes progress on jobs, inflation, and housing affordability, asserting the administration’s accomplishments for the American people.

Future Prospects

Loyd advised caution, noting that presidential approval ratings should be considered alongside other political indicators. He saw parallels with the 2018 midterms, where Republicans lost the House, but mentioned post-2020 redistricting might better protect current GOP incumbents somewhat.