Top Science Panel Supports Research on Extreme Weather and Climate Change

The nation’s leading scientific advisory body released a report endorsing a burgeoning field of research that may assist governments in holding fossil fuel companies accountable for damages from severe weather. This field, known as extreme event attribution, aims to determine how much recent heat waves, heavy rains, droughts, or wildfires have been exacerbated by climate change.

Scientists have long acknowledged that global warming, driven by emissions from fossil fuels, intensifies and increases the likelihood of specific extreme weather events. In the last two decades, they have developed tools to estimate the extent to which global warming is influencing particular weather events in specific locations.

The report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine highlights attribution science but does not offer policy or legal recommendations. However, it notes that the findings could be pertinent in various legal contexts. For instance, Multnomah County in Oregon used an attribution study in a $50 billion lawsuit against oil companies, asserting that the 2021 record-breaking summer heat wave in the Pacific Northwest would have been nearly impossible without human-induced climate change.

As more states and local governments pursue similar lawsuits, fossil fuel industry supporters have criticized scientists involved in attribution analyses, labeling them as activists against oil producers. Energy in Depth, from the Independent Petroleum Association of America, a lobbying entity, claimed that the National Academies’ report constitutes a “latest deliverable in a well-funded litigation campaign.”

The National Academies report indicates significant advancements in the methodologies for extreme event attribution over recent years. Researchers are now utilizing more sophisticated techniques and enhanced data, enabling them to determine with higher accuracy how much human activity, opposed to natural atmospheric randomness, accounts for extreme events like intense heat spells.