Texas Senate Race: Trump Endorses Paxton Against Cornyn

Voters in Texas are headed to the polls on Tuesday to decide which Republican candidate will represent them in the U.S. Senate elections this November. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces a tough challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has gained an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

Trump announced his support for Paxton last week, despite a long-standing positive relationship with Cornyn. This adds another instance to midterm elections this year testing Trump’s influence, as he often touts his endorsed candidates as victors. Recent polls show Paxton leading Cornyn consistently among Republicans.

Senator vs. Attorney General: What the Polls Indicate

Polling has shown Paxton with a slight but steady lead over Cornyn. For example, Quantas Insights conducted a survey from May 21-23, where Paxton secured 52.7% support compared to Cornyn’s 43.4%. This gives Paxton a notable advantage of 9.3 points, considering a margin of error of 3.5%. Similar trends have been seen in other polls, like the University of Houston Hobby School survey, indicating Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, with 7% undecided.

Furthermore, the polling average from March to May suggests Paxton having an average edge of 7.8 points. Trump’s endorsement has seemingly widened this gap in Paxton’s favor.

Insights from Prediction Markets

Prediction markets illustrate Paxton as the frontrunner in the runoff, boasting up to a 95% chance of winning, as seen on regulated market Kalshi. In contrast, Cornyn’s chances are notably lower, at around 4.4%. On Polymarket, there’s a 77% likelihood that Paxton will lead by more than 9 percentage points, with a 96% chance of victory.

Trump’s Statements on the Endorsement

Trump has declared his full support for Paxton, praising him on Truth Social and describing him as a “true MAGA Warrior” who is loyal to the cause. Trump noted Paxton’s capability to “WIN” and criticized Cornyn as “VERY disloyal,” citing his alleged lack of support for Trump’s suggested legislations. Paxton expressed gratitude for Trump’s endorsement, emphasizing his commitment to the “America First agenda” in the Senate.

Facing Democratic Challenger James Talarico

The outcome of Tuesday’s runoff will determine who will compete against Democratic State Senator James Talarico. Talarico already has significant support and could become the first Democrat to win a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1993. Despite Texas’s past Republican leanings, Talarico positions himself as a strong contender.

He has dismissed Trump’s influence on the runoff, criticizing both Cornyn and Paxton as symbols of flawed politics that favor wealthy donors. Talarico emphasizes a movement aimed at improving conditions for working people, framing the political competition as ‘top versus bottom’ struggles.

Political betting markets predict a tight general election race. Over the past weekend, Kalshi traders gave Republicans a slight edge, with a 55% chance of retaining the seat, whereas Talarico has a 45% chance. The prediction market evaluates the November race as highly competitive, with Paxton seen as a slight favorite to prevail over Talarico.

Cornyn, despite the competition, remains optimistic, citing past electoral success. He highlighted potential vulnerabilities for Paxton, suggesting candidate scandals and Talarico’s substantial fundraising might impact voter decisions in November.