Predicting the Unpredictable: World Cup Insights and Challenges

Forget March Madness or the College Football Playoffs. The World Cup stands as the original bracket-buster tournament. While two leading teams often reach the final, surprises occur frequently from the initial matches to the final showdown. In 2022, Saudi Arabia delivered a stunning performance by defeating eventual champions Argentina 2-1 during the group stage. In 2002, Senegal overcame the holding champions, France. This had a profound impact on Senegalese fans, considering France’s long historical rule over Senegal. The same year, co-host South Korea outplayed Italy with a ‘golden goal’ in extra time, advancing to the semi-finals. A look further back includes the United States’ surprising win over England in 1950. However, let’s focus on the present.

Though attempting to predict World Cup outcomes often seems futile, we offer our insights regardless. Following the success of our Premier League predictions led by The Athletic’s Oliver Kay, where he ranked third behind subscribers and a young participant named Wilf, we continue this prediction series for each World Cup matchday.

Throughout the tournament, Andy Jones and I, Elias Burke, will provide expert opinions to enhance your understanding of the matches. We aim to give game predictions, highlight notable players, and evaluate how easy or hard it is to foresee outcomes. During the Premier League season, Andy reports on Liverpool, gaining deep insights into the club’s success at top levels. Meanwhile, I cover Tottenham Hotspur, experiencing more losses. Combined, our clubs have 20 players at the World Cup. We’ve extensively reviewed international football to prepare for this challenge.

The Athletic’s subscribers are again contributing, competing during the World Cup prediction series. Daily, a guest subscriber will challenge us. Alongside us, young Wilf, who shone in the Premier League predictions, and ‘Algo’, a newly developed algorithm, debuting in the 2026 World Cup, will participate. Joining the predictions is Stanley, a one-year-old whippet.

If you want to become our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, follow the instructions provided. Those who followed Oli’s Premier League series will see similarities, with minor differences: every World Cup matchday will receive attention. We predict outcomes, not scores, awarding three points for correct outcomes—a simpler system than the Premier League version.

A leaderboard will track the prediction accuracy of all participants, including us, subscribers, Wilf, Stanley, and ‘Algo’. The leaderboard ranks by correct prediction percentage, and continuous streaks will be recorded. This summer, The Athletic also introduces an interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, inviting you to make personal predictions for every round.

Even if you haven’t watched much international football recently or are beginning your football journey, experts from the 48 participating nations will provide insights into each team’s strengths and form. Despite knowledge and insights, seasoned World Cup watchers know it’s only a matter of time before a significant tournament upset disrupts our seemingly obvious predictions.

Our goal? To outperform the algorithm. Enjoy the games and good luck!