Los Angeles Mayoral Race: Fundraising and Polling Developments

Spencer Pratt, a mayoral candidate for Los Angeles, reported significantly higher contributions than his rivals in the latest campaign finance filings. Between April 19 and May 16, Pratt raised approximately $2.72 million. In contrast, incumbent mayor Karen Bass raised around $283,000, according to documents from the Los Angeles Ethics Commission. City Councilmember Nithya Raman reported raising about $400,000, which included a $60,000 loan she made to her campaign.

As of May 16, Pratt has accumulated a total of $3.26 million in contributions, slightly exceeding Bass’s total of $3.13 million. Raman has reported contributions totaling over $931,000.

Pratt, known for his reality television background and entering the race following the loss of his home to the Palisades Fire, has energized the campaign with viral videos. He criticized Bass’s management of the fire, public safety, and homelessness. Early voting for the election began ahead of the upcoming June 2 primary.

Pratt’s recent fundraising success suggests potential for him to advance to a runoff in November. Despite facing challenges in a predominantly Democratic city that hasn’t seen a Republican mayor since 1997, Pratt, a registered Republican endorsed by President Donald Trump, remains a strong contender.

Polling data indicates Bass leads the race, though possibly not enough to avoid a runoff. Pratt and Raman are closely contesting for second place. A poll from Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics shows Bass with 30% support, up from 20% in March, Pratt with 22% support, rising from 10%, and Raman with 19%. This poll also noted a sharp decline in undecided voters from 51% in March to 16% in May.

This poll surveyed 1,000 likely primary voters between May 9 and 10, shortly after a mayoral debate, with a margin of error of ±3%.

“In a separate poll by Tavern Research, Bass maintained the lead with 22% support, Pratt followed at 18%, and Raman at 16%. Undecided voters decreased from 46% to 29% after a follow-up survey.”

This survey involved 531 likely voters between May 1 and 4, with a margin of error of ±6.1%.

The prediction markets reflect similar trends. These platforms aggregate information rapidly, although they remain susceptible to bias and speculative volatility. Bass’s trading odds increased to 71% recently from 56%. Pratt’s odds fell to 22%, while Raman’s declined to 10%.

The Kalshi exchange showed comparable figures with Bass priced at 67%, Pratt at 27%, and Raman at approximately 7%.

The primary election is scheduled for June 2. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff will occur on November 3 between the top two candidates.