Ken Paxton’s Campaign Funding and Polls

Ken Paxton has received a financial boost of $5 million from President Donald Trump’s main political action committee as his campaign strives to close the gap with his rival, James Talarico. This recent contribution from MAGA Inc.—the primary pro-Trump political action committee—was detailed in a Federal Election Commission (FEC) filing on Saturday.

Paxton’s campaign finds itself strongly supported by various GOP-linked groups. In September alone, spending on pro-Paxton advertisements amounted to over $94 million according to NPR reports. Newsweek has reached out to Paxton’s campaign for further comments.

Paxton Enjoying National GOP Backing

Initially, senior figures within the Republican Party, along with some leading national groups, expressed concerns about Paxton’s candidacy, opting to support his primary opponent, incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the GOP’s Senate campaign arm, backed Cornyn and assisted in fundraising for his campaign. Senate Majority Leader John Thune endorsed Cornyn over Paxton, praising the former as a “principled conservative.” Thune later emphasized the necessity of “going all-in” to support Paxton and ensure Republican dominance in Texas.

Paxton triumphed in the May primary, aided by Trump’s endorsement, and enjoys substantial financial backing from the party’s national fundraising apparatus. Prior to the latest $5 million donation from MAGA Inc., FEC filings revealed that Trump’s campaign funding arm had earlier provided $10 million to Paxton’s campaign, directing these resources to the Virginia-based political communications firm Del Ray Media for campaign advertisements.

Records indicate contributions from America PAC, founded by Elon Musk, amounting to over $2 million in support of Paxton’s campaign. According to The Hill, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) linked group also allocated nearly $54 million to Paxton.

SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham stated to Politico, “The Republican Party is united to elect Ken Paxton and keep Texas red in November. Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.”

This financial support seems to shift the fiscal dynamics of the Texas Senate race, placing Paxton ahead monetarily despite Talarico’s initial fundraising advantage. FEC records show Talarico finished June with $21.5 million in cash based on approximately $69 million in total receipts and $47 million worth of disbursements compared to only $1.8 million for Paxton at the time.

Where the Race Stands

Despite Paxton’s recent financial advantage, the polling numbers suggest otherwise. James Talarico leads Paxton across all major polls, with margins varying from substantial to more competitive as the election date of November 3 approaches. The New York Times highlights that Paxton has not led a poll since an August 9-10 survey from Emerson College, which gave him a slight 1-point lead. They were closely matched in the August 21-24 poll by Overton Insights.

In a survey conducted from September 8 to 11, released this week by ReconMR/Texas Pulse, Talarico had a 6-point lead—49 percent to 43 percent—outside the margin of error. An August 18-22 poll from Texas Southern University showed Talarico with considerable leads over Paxton in districts 15, 28, and 34, areas previously won decisively by Trump in 2024.

During a recent appearance on Fox News regarding these polls, Paxton remarked, “I don’t trust all these polls. We have our own polling that suggests maybe a little different result, but we definitely have a close race.”