Fractured Field Emerges in South Carolina Republican Senate Race

Interim Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman are leading the Republican primary race for South Carolina’s Senate seat, based on a survey released less than three weeks ahead of the election. Conducted on July 21, the poll showed Graham with support from 20.8 percent of likely Republican voters and Norman with 16.9 percent. The lack of a majority suggests the primary on August 11 could lead to a runoff on August 25.

A Tight Contest Following Lindsey Graham’s Death

The race was prompted by the death of Senator Lindsey Graham on July 11. Governor Henry McMaster appointed his sister, Darline Graham, to fill the remainder of the term. Initially seen as a temporary holder of the position, her candidacy gained momentum with President Donald Trump’s endorsement on July 17.

Despite her poll lead, Graham’s standing is uncertain. The survey revealed that 17.8 percent of prospective voters are unaware of her, and 31.3 percent have not formed an opinion. Resonance Media Services—headed by political strategist Rick Quinn—carried out the survey among 600 probable primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Graham’s 3.9-point lead falls within this margin, indicating the race remains open.

Norman Preps for Potential Runoff

Norman, though trailing initially, is in a solid position if the race extends to a runoff. He has strong favorability ratings and is often chosen as a secondary preference by voters. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Graham, Norman, a vocal Trump supporter, continues to campaign diligently after finishing third in the recent gubernatorial primary.

Support among other candidates is varied. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette stands at 9.6 percent, while Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch each hold 7.2 percent. Former Governor Mark Sanford received 7.1 percent, Representative Nancy Mace captured 2.8 percent, and Walterboro attorney Duke Buckner obtained 0.9 percent. Sanford, a known Trump critic, entered the race after the poll was completed. Mace withdrew on Monday.

Conservative Endorsements are Divided

National party figures have shown split endorsements in the race. Graham is backed by Senator Tom Cotton, whereas Senate Majority Leader John Thune expressed praise without a formal endorsement. Norman has gained support from high-profile conservatives like Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, showcasing significant divisions among party leaders.

General Election on the Horizon

As Republicans face a crowded primary, Democrat Annie Andrews, who won her nomination on June 9, is gearing up for the November election. Andrews suggests that a drawn-out and costly Republican primary may help Democrats.

Justin Vaughn, a political scientist at Coastal Carolina University, noted to Newsweek that despite the Republican challenges, South Carolina predominantly favors GOP candidates. Trump won the state by 18 points in 2024, and Democrats have not secured a Senate seat in South Carolina since 1998.

With the August 11 primary nearing, this race garners national attention, driven by unpredictable voter dynamics and a tight schedule.

For more information, contact Newsweek editor Anthony Murray.