Democrats Aim for Midterm Gains in Trump-Carried States

Recent polling indicates Democrats are leading in several Senate and gubernatorial races in states previously won by President Donald Trump in the 2020 and 2024 elections. These contests in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas come as a crucial test of the political landscape during Trump’s second term, which has seen his approval ratings dip due to economic concerns, tariff policies, and the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Democrats are leveraging recent successes and historical trends favoring the opposition party in midterms to gain ground in these traditionally Republican strongholds. On Thursday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball revised its forecasts to favor Democrats in three gubernatorial races, including those in Iowa and Alaska. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report considers these races toss-ups, with Democrats showing competitive polling numbers ahead of the November midterms.

Past Presidential Elections

Trump emerged victorious in 25 states during the 2020 presidential election and expanded this list to 31 in 2024. Although he lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden, Trump reclaimed the presidency in 2024 by defeating Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, flipping six states previously won by Biden. This victory also led Republicans to regain Senate control, flip Democratic-held seats, and maintain a majority in the House of Representatives.

While Trump boosted Republican prospects in 2024, the 2026 midterms could potentially reverse these trends. Mark Jones, a political expert from Rice University, described Trump’s 2026 impact as diminishing support for Republicans across the country. The midterm elections will test Trump’s influence and endorsement power.

Iowa Governor’s Race

Iowa, a battleground state that historically swung between parties, was claimed by Trump in his presidential campaigns, with his margins widening from 2016 to 2024. Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is not seeking reelection, providing an opportunity for Democrats to gain control.

Democrat Rob Sand, Iowa State Auditor, competes against Republican Zach Lahn. Sand has notable name recognition, predicted to be a significant factor in the race. Emerson College Polling revealed a slight lead for Sand, 49% to 46%, with independents breaking significantly in his favor.

Other polls, including one from Suffolk University, also show Sand leading, reinforcing the competitiveness of this race. Sabato’s Crystal Ball upgraded this race to “leans Democratic,” while the Cook Political Report also recognizes Sand’s strong campaign.

Ohio Races

Ohio Governor’s Race

Ohio is a key state, with both the Governor and Senate elections garnering attention. Democrat Amy Acton, notable for her role during the COVID-19 pandemic, contests against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy.

Polls indicate a close race. A Wedgewood Poll shows Acton with a 1 point lead, while Fox News polls gave Ramaswamy an edge. The Cook Political Report keeps this race as a toss-up, despite a prior bias towards Republicans.

Ohio Senate Race

Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown seeks to return by challenging Republican Jon Husted. Brown holds a lead, supported by a Fox News poll showing him ahead by 8 points, attributed to strong independent backing.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate this race as a toss-up, reflecting its competitive nature.

North Carolina Senate Race

North Carolina remains a fertile battleground, with frequent ticket-splitting and recent success for Democrats in statewide races. Former Governor Roy Cooper faces off against Republican Michael Whatley.

Recent polls, such as the one from High Point University, show Cooper ahead by 5 points, buttressed by solid independent support. The Cook Political Report considers this race to Lean Democratic, sharing this view with Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Texas Senate Race

Texas traditionally supports Republicans, but Democrats are making strides amid growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s administration. Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico.

Polls, including those by Overton Insights, show the two candidates in a statistical tie. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball categorize the Texas race as a toss-up, signaling its competitive nature.

Alaska Races

Alaska Senate Race

Republican Dan Sullivan seeks re-election against Democrat Mary Peltola in a tight race. Ranked choice voting in Alaska influences the dynamics of the election process.

Polls from Data for Progress indicate Peltola leads Sullivan, especially in ranked choice voting scenarios, with Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball labeling this race as competitive.

Alaska Governor’s Race

Democrats are eyeing the Alaska Governor’s office, which has seen persistent Republican leadership. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins represents Democrats against Republican contenders, in a race affected by ranked choice voting.

Forecasts by the Cook Political Report rate this race as likely Republican, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball signifies its potential as a toss-up.

The outcomes on November 3 will significantly reflect the political climate during Trump’s current term, setting the stage for the 2028 presidential race.