Democrat Gains Fundraising Edge in Traditionally Republican Texas Areas

Several traditionally Republican neighborhoods in Texas are financially supporting Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. An analysis from The Houston Chronicle using Federal Election Commission records shows Talarico outperforming Paxton in fundraising across ZIP codes that voted for Trump.

This fundraising shift coincides with Texas becoming a pivotal state in the battle for Senate control. Democrats aim to secure a Senate seat in the state for the first time since 1988, capitalizing on Trump’s declining approval.

Fundraising Statistics

In University Park, Talarico raised $214,296 through June 30 compared to Paxton’s $181,656. Across 11 ZIP codes in areas where Trump previously won, Talarico gathered $1.3 million from individual donors. Paxton lagged with approximately $422,000.

These trends are evident in The Woodlands. The area showed a significant fundraising gap, with Talarico raising $238,622 compared to Paxton’s $39,281. Other regions like West Houston, Katy, Richmond, and North Dallas reflected similar disparities.

Shifts in Republican Strongholds

The areas where Talarico has raised more funds were reliably Republican in 2024. The Woodlands, Memorial ZIP codes, and Katy areas, all within districts Trump won, now show Democratic fundraising leadership.

Talarico’s largest contributions come from Democratic-favoring areas, particularly Austin’s West Lake Hills and Houston’s River Oaks.

Overall Campaign Fundraising

Despite the gains in traditionally Republican areas, Talarico’s overall fundraising remains strongest in Democratic regions. Talarico’s campaign reported raising $68.6 million through June 30, with expenditures of $47 million, leaving $21.5 million in reserve. Paxton’s committees reported $9.2 million raised, $7.5 million spent, and $1.76 million remaining.

Impact of Trump’s Influence

Reports indicate Paxton has blamed Trump for lackluster fundraising. At a private event, he suggested Trump’s Dallas convention hurt numbers. Paxton’s campaign argues their internal polling shows recovery.

Trump has stated that his events benefited Paxton’s campaign greatly.

Polling Data

Public polls mainly show Talarico leading, albeit by small margins. Of eight September surveys, six had Talarico ahead by one to six points. A tie was found on one survey, while Paxton’s campaign-sponsored poll showed him three points ahead.

Nonpartisan surveys maintained Talarico’s lead. Marist University and Emerson College polls, among others, support this trend despite narrow leads in other surveys.