Decline in Support for Trump’s Immigration Policies Amidst Controversies

The latest NBC News Decision Desk Poll, conducted in partnership with SurveyMonkey, has indicated a significant drop in support for President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda in early 2026. This shift in public sentiment follows a recent incident where federal immigration agents shot and killed two Americans. The government’s aggressive immigration strategies and deportation objectives have diminished Trump’s approval ratings on the issue, which was a key factor in his initial election.

Historically, immigration and border security have been strengths for Trump, particularly during his 2024 re-election campaign and the onset of his current administration. However, his ratings on these matters have now declined to match his overall job approval rating.

Public Disapproval

The poll reveals that 49% of adults strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of border security and immigration, a notable increase from 38% last summer and 34% in April. Independent voters have largely contributed to this disapproval, with the number of strong disapprovers within this group increasing by 11 points since August. In the aftermath of Alex Pretti’s fatal shooting in Minnesota, 60% of survey respondents expressed disapproval of Trump’s approach to immigration and border security, while 40% approved, including 27% who were strongly in favor and 13% who somewhat approved.

Overall, Trump’s approval rating saw a slight decline to 39%, which aligns with his score on immigration and border security issues. According to Marc Trussler, a senior analyst with NBC News’ Decision Desk, the shift among independent voters is significant, particularly in swing states where they play a crucial role.

Impact of Minnesota Shootings

The fallout from the shootings of Pretti and Renee Good by immigration agents in Minnesota has highlighted the challenges in the administration’s messaging strategy. The government has attempted to divert attention from cases of aggression against immigrants and residents by emphasizing the risks posed by “sanctuary” policies and suggesting a silent majority supports increased immigration enforcement. Nevertheless, a significant portion of poll respondents—around three-quarters—express a desire for reforms or even the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE), with many believing that immigration officers have overstepped their roles.

About 63% of those surveyed argue that the federal government has overreached by ignoring state and local policies, compared to 37% who feel the opposite. Additionally, a strong majority disapprove of immigration agents wearing masks, with 58% disagreeing that law-abiding citizens have “nothing to fear” from the agency.

Although many Americans believe local governments should assist federal authorities in deporting undocumented immigrants, opinions differ on the extent of cooperation. 46% support conditional cooperation, 34% advocate for universal cooperation, and 20% oppose any collaboration.

The poll, conducted between January 27 and February 6, has a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The incidents involving Pretti and Good have notably fueled a wave of disapproval towards ICE and Trump’s immigration policies, further spurred by numerous social media videos depicting violent confrontations.

Despite ongoing immigration operations nationwide, the events in Minnesota have had the most profound impact on public opinion. Following Pretti’s death, Trump altered the leadership overseeing immigration operations in Minneapolis. While conducting the poll, White House border czar Tom Homan announced the withdrawal of hundreds of immigration agents from the city. Trump later suggested to NBC News that a “softer touch” might be needed concerning immigration.

Sources of Information and Trust in Investigations

When forming opinions on immigration arrests and protest clashes, the public primarily relies on social media videos, with 34% considering them the most accurate source. The second most common source is national news accounts, at 24%.

Trust in federal investigations into the Minnesota shootings is low, with 62% doubting their fairness and transparency. This skepticism follows reports of local authorities being excluded from the investigations and the resignations of multiple federal prosecutors pressured by the administration.

The political implications are significant, as midterm elections loom in Trump’s second term. His overall job approval has dropped to its lowest level, decreasing from 42% in December to 39%. Approval of ICE is even lower, at 34%, while 65% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong path.

Trump’s immigration policies are creating rifts within the Republican base, particularly among those who prioritize party principles over the “Make America Great Again” movement. For instance, while 74% of MAGA Republicans support ICE officers wearing masks, only 46% of traditional Republicans agree.

Although 59% of traditional Republicans back an investigation into Pretti’s shooting, only 38% of MAGA Republicans concur. Similarly, 91% of MAGA Republicans are confident in a transparent probe into the shootings of Good and Pretti, compared to 73% of traditional Republicans who share that confidence.

A concurrent Minnesota-specific poll, conducted by NBC News Decision Desk in collaboration with local affiliates, mirrored the national trends, with a higher emphasis on local news as a source of information. The findings also showed significant support for some level of local cooperation in deporting undocumented immigrants.

This comprehensive survey, involving 21,995 adults, was carried out online and maintains a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.