Zelenskyy Considers Elections and Referendum Amid Ongoing War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is considering announcing a presidential election alongside a referendum concerning a potential peace agreement with Russia. This announcement is anticipated on February 24, which marks four years since Russia initiated its full-scale invasion. Information disclosed by the Financial Times, referencing Ukrainian and European officials associated with the planning, suggests that both the presidential election, where Zelenskyy intends to seek re-election, and a national referendum, could be organized by May 15.

Notably, the reports emphasize that Ukraine might forfeit proposed U.S. security guarantees if it fails to execute these votes by the stipulated date. While past deadlines imposed by the U.S. have lapsed, the current situation involves increased pressure from American officials, especially as the November midterm elections approach.

A note marks a ballot box for voters with high temperatures at a polling station during the 2020 Ukrainian local elections in Rubizhne, Luhansk Region, eastern Ukraine, on Oct. 25, 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The timeline for these events is further complicated by existing disagreements between Moscow and Kyiv regarding significant territorial matters, such as the control over the Donbas region and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Moreover, due to current martial law, which prohibits national elections during wartime, legal adjustments by the parliament are essential for any electoral processes to take place.

Zelenskyy has consistently communicated that the decisions regarding the scheduling and format of any elections are exclusively for Ukraine and its citizens to determine, dismissing any attempts by the Kremlin to influence proceedings. In a series of extended posts on social media in December, he highlighted that security and legislative factors are pivotal in determining the feasibility of an election.

Zelenskyy said voting can only take place on Ukrainian-controlled territory and must ensure the participation of soldiers defending the country.

According to Zelenskyy, elections should only occur in areas under Ukrainian authority, with provisions for the participation of Ukrainian troops. He emphasized that voting cannot proceed in territories controlled by Russia due to concerns about conducting such processes fairly. Additionally, he speculated that attaining a ceasefire could be vital to facilitate secure voting environments, which could include protected airspace and international monitoring.

The notion of a deadline, possibly stemming from previous expectations from the Trump administration, follows an Associated Press report indicating Washington’s aspiration for the conflict’s resolution by June. Recent discussions took place in Abu Dhabi, involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, albeit yielding limited success with the agreement on a 314-person prisoner swap—the first such exchange in five months.

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff expressed that the U.S. and Russia consented to revitalize military communication channels, deeming them vital for peace maintenance. Trilateral talks are expected to persist in the upcoming weeks as representatives return to their capital cities for further deliberation.