President Donald Trump has called off a rally in Kansas, planned for Saturday, as new polls show Republican Senator Roger Marshall trailing behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. This race is among the most closely monitored Senate contests before Election Day.
The Kansas Republican Party Chair, Danedri Herbert, confirmed the cancellation Thursday. The rally was set for 10:30 a.m. at Salina Regional Airport, 100 miles west of Topeka. The decision comes as Marshall faces increased pressure to secure a second Senate term. Polling indicates that Hamilton, a Methodist megachurch pastor, is gaining traction in Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
New Poll Shows Hamilton with Four-Point Lead
A CNN/SSRS poll conducted between October 20-26 found Hamilton leading Marshall by four points among likely voters in Kansas—49 percent to 45 percent. This four-point lead is within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error, highlighting the competitive nature of the race, which could impact Senate control after the November 3 elections.
Recent polling trends align with these results. A YouGov survey from September 24-October 4 showed Hamilton ahead by three points. Another poll by GBAO, sponsored by the Democratic Attorneys General Association, found Hamilton leading by five points. However, an InsiderAdvantage poll from October 13-14 showed Marshall with a slight edge, leading 48 percent to Hamilton’s 47 percent.
Despite the Republican lean of the state, the latest results suggest Marshall is struggling to establish a decisive lead. The CNN survey included 838 likely Kansas voters, with the poll’s margin of error at 4.5 points, indicating the race remains tightly contested.
Trump Previously Held a Rally for Marshall
This canceled rally would have been Trump’s second for Marshall in Kansas this month. Trump previously campaigned for the senator in Wichita on October 19. Vice President JD Vance has also supported the Republican with rallies in Kansas City in September and Topeka on a recent Monday.
The Salina event was perceived as a chance for Trump to galvanize Republican voters and bolster Marshall in the campaign’s final phase. Yet, Marshall’s struggle against Hamilton in the Republican-favoring state suggests the administration is reconsidering its strategy. Instead, sources informed NBC News’ Garrett Haake about a plan for up to 20 tele-rallies as the election nears.
Why the Kansas Race Matters for Senate Control
The Kansas Senate race has gained national attention due to its implications for power balance in Washington. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, including two independents caucusing with Democrats. Democrats require a net gain of four seats to take control, which means they need to protect vulnerable seats and flip several Republican-held ones.
Initially, Kansas wasn’t seen as a key opportunity for Democratic gains, given Trump’s decisive 2024 victory there. However, polling shows Marshall’s appeal as a greater determinant than the state’s partisan preferences. CNN’s polling analysis revealed most likely Kansas voters viewed Marshall unfavorably, with about 12 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters supporting Hamilton—an unusual crossover for a Democrat in such a state.
For Hamilton’s supporters, 59 percent said their choice was driven more by opposition to Marshall than support for Hamilton himself. This suggests the race may hinge on views of the incumbent rather than strict party lines. Yet, at least one in eight likely voters in Kansas may still shift their allegiance. Among undecided voters, six in ten identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, offering Marshall a pool of potential support.
Hamilton provides a unique candidate profile with his background as a Methodist megachurch pastor. Initially considering an independent run, he later secured the Democratic nomination, defeating Christy Davis and Noah Taylor in the primary. Despite this competitiveness, translating it into votes to overcome Kansas’s Republican advantage remains a challenge.
Democrats See an Opportunity
Recent polls give Democrats hope in several states for Senate gains. Democratic candidates are leading in Michigan and Texas, while Maine remains closely competitive.
In Texas, Democratic State Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points among likely voters. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide in three decades. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers by seven points. El-Sayed has consolidated his party support after a heated primary.
In Maine, the close race between Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson tests Collins’ ability to maintain support in a state favoring Democrats in the 2024 election. Polls show that Democrats are gaining ground in typically Republican areas, while battleground states remain competitive, though voters may still change their preferences.
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