Tight Senate Race in South Carolina Draws National Attention

Democrat Annie Andrews is only a single point behind Republican Senator Darline Graham in the latest poll for the South Carolina Senate race. This poll was published Friday as Democrats see potential in the Palmetto state for the 2026 midterm elections.

South Carolina traditionally leans conservative. In the 2024 presidential election, the state favored President Donald Trump by nearly 18 points. However, with Trump’s nationwide approval rating declining, Democrats aim to broaden their Senate campaign map for the election on November 3.

States usually leaning Republican, such as South Carolina, Kansas, and Mississippi, are grabbing the attention of Democrats along with other states already recognized as Senate battlegrounds like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.

Darline Graham was appointed to the Senate after the passing of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham. She secured her party’s nomination with Trump’s endorsement. In the InsiderAdvantage poll involving 1,200 likely voters, her support was 46%, compared to 45% for Andrews. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Other candidates got 5% support, while 4% of voters remained undecided. This poll was conducted from September 28 to 29, 2026.

Such close polling results are not new in South Carolina. Democrats encountered disappointment in 2020 when a close race between Senator Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison ended with a substantial win for Graham. Newsweek contacted both the Andrews and Graham campaigns for comments through email.

Darline Graham’s Narrow Lead

In other polls, Graham maintained only a slight advantage. A Trafalgar Group poll, a Republican pollster, showed her with just a single-point lead, 43% to 42%. The survey had a margin of error of 2.9 points and involved 1,087 likely voters from September 23 to 25. An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll from September 8 to 9 also had Graham leading by 2 points within the 2.83-point margin of error.

This represents a shift from 2024 when Trump garnered 58% of South Carolina’s vote, decisively outperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris. National polls are indicating a favorable trend for Democrats. A recent YouGov and The Economist survey showed Democrats with a 15-point lead on the generic ballot among likely voters.

Comparing Annie Andrews’ and Jaime Harrison’s Polling

Polling indicated a close race between Harrison and Graham in 2020, proving that errors can vary each cycle. Whether polls will accurately predict outcomes this year remains uncertain. A Data for Progress poll before the 2020 election had Graham leading Harrison by only 3 points. Similarly, a Morning Consult poll showed Graham with a 2-point lead.

Challenges and Opportunities for Democrats in South Carolina

While polls suggest a tighter Senate race than anticipated, South Carolina is challenging for Democrats. The state last supported a Democrat for president with Jimmy Carter in 1976. In recent cycles, Republicans have consistently won by double-digit margins.

Democrats face challenges here but see a high floor in areas with significant Black voter populations, along with cities like Charleston and Columbia leaning more Democrat. However, rural areas and suburbs typically favor Republicans due to racial polarization.

Despite these obstacles, some Democrats believe the national political climate could help them compete even in conservative territories. Trump’s approval rating challenges continue, with 50% disapproval in South Carolina as tracked by Civiqs.

Outlook and Voter Information

While forecasts favor Graham, with The Cook Political Report marking the race Likely Republican and Sabato’s Crystal Ball naming it Safe Republican, polls will remain critical in understanding voter sentiment before the midterms.

For South Carolina voters, registration deadlines approach: in-person registration ends on October 2 at 5 p.m., online or electronic submissions are deadline is October 4 at 11:59 p.m., and mailed registration must be postmarked by October 5. Early voting is available from October 19 to 31, and any registered voter can cast an early vote at designated centers. The deadline to apply for an absentee ballot is October 23 at 5 p.m.

This article was generated with assistance from Newsweek’s AI tool, Martyn.