Tight Race in South Carolina Senate Election

Darline Graham, the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in South Carolina, is facing a tough contest as a new poll reveals her tied with Democratic candidate Dr. Annie Andrews. The New York Times/Siena Research Institute poll indicates both candidates hold 48 percent support, while 3 percent of respondents remain undecided. This poll emerges just a day before former President Donald Trump is set to appear in South Carolina for a rally in support of Graham.

The midterm elections are often seen as indicative of the current political climate’s impact on the party in power. Historically, they result in the president’s party losing seats. During the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured a victory in South Carolina over then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

The late Lindsey Graham, the prior Republican Senator and Darline’s brother, secured his Senate seat in the 2020 election. He passed away in July at the age of 71 due to aortic dissection. His death allowed Darline to be sworn into the seat with Trump’s endorsement, just three days later.

Despite Trump’s efforts, including numerous rallies to support vulnerable GOP candidates, his approval ratings have been declining. Economic concerns, including affordability, have been significant issues among American households.

The poll highlights men’s support for Graham at 55 percent, whereas Annie Andrews garners 40 percent. For women, Andrews leads with 54 percent, while Graham receives 43 percent support. Among Independents, Andrews leads with 57 percent support versus Graham’s 37 percent.

Graham found substantial backing from white voters aged 45 and above, including those with or without a college degree, and Republican likely voters. Among 2024 Trump voters, 89 percent favor Graham, whereas 8 percent support Andrews. Graham’s favorability rating is 44 percent, while Andrews enjoys a 45 percent favorability rating.

On economic issues, 51 percent believe Andrews would perform better compared to 43 percent for Graham. Regarding immigration, 50 percent believe Graham would be more effective, versus 44 percent for Andrews. On acting in the best interest of ordinary South Carolinians, 49 percent trust Andrews, while 46 percent support Graham.

The poll surveyed 707 likely voters in South Carolina from October 19-26, 2026, with a margin of error of 4.3 percent. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as lean Republican. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket found Graham leading on Wednesday afternoon.

Insights from D. Stephen Voss, a political professor at the University of Kentucky, suggest that Democrats could still see surprises if poll trends continue. Even with the best polling data, predictions aren’t guaranteed, but most voters have already decided by late October, providing Republicans with some optimism in traditionally Republican states like South Carolina.

Grant Davis Reeher from Syracuse University suggests a potential Republican rebound in the final days. However, if Democrats succeed in South Carolina, it may alter the Senate’s outlook.

Another poll by InsiderAdvantage showed Graham with a slight lead of 46 percent over Andrews’ 45 percent, while Libertarian Kasie Whitener received 2 percent, and Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett got 3 percent. The margin of error was 2.83 percent in this survey of 1,200 voters from September 28-29, 2026.

An earlier InsiderAdvantage poll narrowly favoring Graham with 45.1 percent found Andrews at 43.2 percent, and undecided voters at 8.5 percent. This was based on 1,200 likely voters surveyed from September 8-9, 2026.