Texas Senate Race Shows Significant Shift in Voter Support

James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the Texas State Senate, has experienced a substantial 28-point change in voter support in District 9. This shift is compared to former President Trump’s numbers in 2024, based on a new private poll obtained by Harvey Kronberg’s Quorum Report.

The change signals a potential challenge for Republicans in Texas, who are facing the risk of losing a Senate race there for the first time since 1988. Talarico, currently a Democratic state lawmaker, is competing against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton won the GOP nomination after defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn with Trump’s endorsement in May.

Democrats aim to gain a majority in both the House and Senate in the upcoming November elections, seeking to limit Trump’s legislative power in his remaining two years as president.

Internal Poll

The Quorum Report released an internal Republican poll on Monday, showing Talarico leading with 52 percent in District 9, while Paxton trails at 41 percent. In 2024, Trump had a 17-point lead over Kamala Harris in the district, presenting a drastic 28-point shift away from GOP support compared to the last presidential election.

District 9 encompasses parts of Tarrant County, including Fort Worth. This follows a significant upset in January when Democrat Taylor Rehmet won a special election against Republican Leigh Wambsganss, marking the district’s first Democratic win since 1991.

The poll surveyed 600 likely voters between September 10 and 15, with a three-point margin of error. Quorum Report acknowledged not publishing the polling memo, stating it is unusual but sometimes necessary for campaign analysis.

General Polling

Last week revealed Talarico’s lead in eight different polls. An Emerson College poll conducted from September 12 to 14 showed Talarico leading by a narrow margin, 47 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent.

A Siena College/ReconMR poll, conducted from September 8 to 11, placed Talarico with 49 percent versus 43 percent for Paxton. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket favor Talarico, with Kalshi assigning him a 59 percent chance of winning, compared to Paxton’s 41 percent. Polymarket estimates a 62-39 split in favor of the Democrat.

Both campaigns are intensifying fundraising efforts. Paxton has received $5 million from MAGA Inc., the primary pro-Trump political action committee, as revealed by Federal Election Commission records.

Controversial Candidate

Paxton has been controversial within Texas Republican circles, facing impeachment in 2023 by the GOP-dominated Texas House for alleged misuse of power, though later acquitted by the state Senate. Trump’s endorsement boosted Paxton over Cornyn in the GOP primary, ending Cornyn’s Senate term that began in 2002.