Texas Senate Race: Paxton vs. Talarico

Democratic hopeful James Talarico’s chances of defeating Republican Ken Paxton have diminished after Paxton secured the GOP nomination in the Texas U.S. Senate race. Paxton, backed by former President Donald Trump, defeated incumbent John Cornyn, a four-term senator, with 62 percent of the vote, according to the Associated Press.

Current Market Trends

Prediction markets now favor Paxton, though the race remains open with more than five months until Election Day. The November contest will test if Democrats can gain a statewide office in Texas, a feat not achieved since the mid-1990s. Suburban areas around Austin, Dallas, and Houston are shifting toward Democrats, making the race competitive.

Talarico’s campaign was contacted by Newsweek for comments outside normal business hours.

Betting Odds

According to prediction market Polymarket, Talarico’s chances have decreased by 5 percentage points, dropping from 45 percent to around 40 percent. Kalshi estimates his probability of winning at 43 percent, down from around 44 percent earlier in the week. BetOnline reports that after Paxton’s runoff victory, he became the slight favorite, standing at -125 compared to Talarico’s -105.

Polls Overview

Polling has indicated a tight race with no clear leader. An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll of 1,165 Texas voters in January showed that Paxton and Talarico were tied at 45.6 percent. After securing the Democratic nomination in March, Talarico led in several polls. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll in April showed him leading Paxton 46 percent to 41 percent.

Another April poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas found Talarico ahead by 8 points (42 percent to 34 percent). However, a poll from Texas Southern University predicted a dead heat in May, with both candidates at 45 percent. This shows a shift from a close contest to Democratic strength, before narrowing as Republicans consolidated support.

Talarico is currently polling better than Beto O’Rourke at the same stage in the 2018 Senate race, suggesting a stronger Democratic start. However, the Cook Political Report still classifies the race as Lean Republican, highlighting Texas’s GOP lean.

Candidate Positions

Ken Paxton celebrated his runoff victory, declaring that the Senate seat belongs to Texans, not Washington. He positioned himself as a grassroots conservative, focusing on border security and opposing federal policies.

Talarico’s campaign has faced Republican criticism over his past comments and liberal positions, notably his 2021 statement that “God is nonbinary.” His support for LGBTQ+ rights is used against him in GOP messaging. Talarico argues the race is a choice between corruption and a moderate, policy-focused governance. He accused Paxton of failing the character test and prioritizing personal interests over Texan laws. Paxton, previously impeached by the Texas House over allegations of abuse and corruption, was acquitted by the Senate.

Texans will vote on November 3, 2026.