Texas Senate Race Heating Up: Talarico vs. Paxton

Democratic candidate James Talarico is receiving more support from 2024 Donald Trump voters than his Republican opponent Ken Paxton is from 2024 Kamala Harris voters, according to a Big Data Poll. Democrats aim to gain control of the Senate and the House in the upcoming midterm elections. A victory in Texas would be significant, as the state has been a Republican stronghold. The last time Democrats won a Senate race there was in 1988.

Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely Texas voters from September 24 to September 26. Talarico, a Texas State Representative, leads Paxton 44.6% to 41.6% when excluding those who only ‘lean’ toward a candidate. Talarico has the backing of 15% of Trump supporters from 2024, while Paxton holds only 4.3% of Harris voters. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Trump won Texas by 13.7 percentage points in 2024 against Harris.

SoCal Strategies Survey

Results from a SoCal Strategies poll mirror those from Big Data Poll. Conducted from September 12 to 13 with 649 likely Texas voters, it found 95% of Harris voters support Talarico, along with 14% of Trump voters. Paxton secures support from 84% of Trump voters and just 4% of Harris voters. The poll also compared Paxton’s performance with that of Texas Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott, facing Democrat Gina Hinojosa, is backed by 89% of Trump voters and 13% of Harris voters. Hinojosa has support from 87% of Harris voters and 9% of Trump voters.

SoCal Strategies gives Talarico a five-point lead, at 50% to 45% for Paxton. In contrast, Abbott leads Hinojosa by 52% to 44%.

Other Polling Insights

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey, published on a Friday, also showed Talarico ahead by five points—49% to 44%—against Paxton. Conducted from September 19 to 22, it surveyed 1,007 likely voters with a 3.6% margin of error. However, a Texas Southern University poll indicated a tighter race, with Talarico leading by only two points, at 47% to 45%. This survey included 1,200 likely voters from July 27 to 30.

Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi report improved odds for Talarico. Polymarket gives him a 61% chance of winning versus 40% for Paxton. In July, Paxton led with 56% to Talarico’s 44%. On Kalshi, Talarico holds a 59% likelihood of success compared to 41% for Paxton. Previously, Paxton had a 57% chance.

Candidate Controversies

Paxton, backed by Trump, remains controversial even among Texas Republicans. He defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who labeled Paxton a “known con man and fraud.” Cornyn refuses to campaign for Paxton in the Senate race. In 2023, Paxton faced impeachment by the GOP-controlled Texas House over alleged misconduct. He denied wrongdoing and was acquitted by the state Senate.

Talarico has faced backlash for comments about Christianity. He once stated, “God is nonbinary” during a Texas House speech. On the Active Theology podcast, he shared, “I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity.” Paxton’s campaign released a video highlighting Talarico’s quote. Recently, Talarico challenged Paxton to a Fox News debate at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. Paxton’s advisor stated willingness to debate, but details remain unscheduled.