Reader vs. Expert QB Ratings: Home-Team Bias Revealed

Mike Sando’s Quarterback Tiers by The Athletic, known for its annual evaluation of NFL quarterbacks, added a new twist this year. Apart from the usual panel of NFL coaches, executives, and insiders, readers were invited to rank quarterbacks too. Over 45,000 readers cast more than half a million votes, aligning closely with the experts’ rankings.

Home-Team Bias

A fascinating discovery from reader data was a noticeable home-team bias. Although The Athletic doesn’t know the exact teams supported by readers, data from team follows in their app provided insights. Readers rated their team’s quarterback higher than others, a pattern consistent across all 32 teams.

For instance, Patriots and Ravens fans were more likely to rank their quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson, one tier higher than other readers. On average, this ‘home-team bump’ accounted for about a half-tier increase.

Significant Home-Team Bumps

Some quarterbacks received substantial boosts from their team’s followers. Tyler Shough from the Saints received a significant adjustment, whereas Deshaun Watson, from the Browns, saw minimal fan influence. Watson’s ratings remained consistently low, reflecting a lack of confidence in his abilities.

Comparison of Reader and Expert Rankings

Readers and experts rated the quarterbacks similarly, though, on average, readers were slightly harsher, placing them about 0.3 tiers lower. While experts see the game through a professional lens, readers were expectedly less forgiving. This resulted in certain quarterbacks being viewed as overrated by readers compared to expert assessments.

Highlighting Reader and Expert Discrepancies

The disparities were most notable for quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa. Watson, despite his off-field controversies and limited play due to injuries, was rated 4.8 by readers, contrasting with the panelists’ 3.8. Rodgers, nearing the end of his career, saw a similar downward adjustment by fans.

These findings underscore how personal biases and access to team-specific news might skew public perceptions. Despite this, the process generated insightful data into the collective view of NFL quarterbacks from both fans and insiders.