Navigating America’s Energy Future Amid Global Shifts

The fluctuations in oil prices following the U.S.-Israeli events in 2026 with Iran, and Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, have sparked differing views on energy priorities. While some advocate increasing reliance on oil and gas, others push for solar and wind. Both are crucial to energy strategy.

China’s control over critical mineral refining, essential for solar panels and lithium-ion batteries production, presents challenges akin to the Strait of Hormuz situation. U.S. shale production is plateauing. The shale revolution, driven by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, was a pivotal achievement. It helped the U.S. lead in oil and gas production, aided recovery post-2009 recession, improved geopolitical standing, and lowered carbon emissions by replacing coal with natural gas.

Shale basins mature, necessitating bipartisan reforms in policy and regulation to prolong their life, rather than relying on uninformed political rhetoric. Advancements in drilling, digital optimization, and recovery techniques can assist. Permitting reform is necessary across all energy sources to avoid delays that inflate costs, deter investment, and slow infrastructure development. Efficient permitting requires clear rules, regulatory certainty, and environmental care.

Looking ahead, transition proponents argue for shifting from fossil fuels to solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, and EVs. These require substantial land for deployment and storage, adding complexity and cost. They also depend on critical metals often processed and manufactured by China, increasing dependency risks for the U.S. and Europe.

The global energy system must be affordable, reliable, and secure. Electricity, representing around 20% of global end-use energy, sees natural gas as a solution for lower-emission electricity and industrial growth. Advanced nuclear energy offers a reliable, carbon-free option with high energy density at an affordable price once operational. Enhanced geothermal systems promise lower emissions and baseload electricity.

These technologies complement solar and wind, not compete. America’s energy strategy should prioritize innovation over ideology, responsibly extending oil and gas while investing in advanced nuclear, geothermal, and grid modernization. Strengthening domestic mining, processing, and manufacturing is crucial to reduce reliance on foreign powers. Energy security involves a comprehensive approach, avoiding dependency on one fuel type.

If China controls future technology materials and processes, the U.S. risks losing a critical security advantage. Yet, a future dominated by China isn’t inevitable, provided there’s bipartisan recognition of physics and economic realities. The innovation behind the shale revolution offers lessons for creating a secure energy future. Shale has bought valuable time, which must be used wisely.

Scott Tinker is a professor emeritus at the University of Texas-Austin and hosts “Energy Switch” on PBS and “Earth Date” on public radio. ©2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved.