Mike Lindell Faces Challenges in Minnesota Republican Primary

Mike Lindell, CEO of MyPillow, entered the Minnesota governor’s race in December 2025. He is known for supporting Donald Trump’s unfounded claims about the 2020 election being stolen. However, polling, betting odds, and forecasts suggest Lindell is unlikely to win Minnesota’s Republican primary.

Allegations of a significant welfare fraud scheme in Minnesota drew national attention in early 2026. This affected the political landscape. In January, Governor Tim Walz announced he wouldn’t seek a third term, reshaping the race. Minnesota’s primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.

Challenges in the Republican Primary

While Lindell’s campaign released a poll indicating his potential success in the Republican primary, other data presents a competitive race. This suggests a fragmented GOP field.

The Lindell campaign’s May poll, conducted by Big Data Poll, showed him with 21.3% of the vote, slightly ahead of Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s 19.4%. The survey involved 1,236 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

In a hypothetical scenario with a Trump endorsement, Lindell’s support rose to 35.9%, compared to Demuth’s 13.9%. However, Trump’s endorsement has not been confirmed.

Validating these findings is difficult, as internal polls are not independently verified. The only recent independent survey, conducted by Peak Insights, placed Lindell at 18% and Demuth at 17%. Other candidates polled in the low teens or single digits.

Prediction markets offer contrasting views. Polymarket shows Demuth favored to win with 64% odds versus Lindell’s 22%. Kalshi presents similar odds, giving Demuth 60% and Lindell 20%.

Lindell’s Prospects in the General Election

Even if Lindell secures the Republican nomination, he faces an uphill battle in the general election. No Republican has won a statewide office in Minnesota since 2006. The state hasn’t supported a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, despite narrow margins in recent elections.

Klobuchar’s lead over Lindell is notable. An Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters, showing Senator Amy Klobuchar leading Lindell by approximately 52.5% to 31.5% in a hypothetical matchup.

Similarly, a SurveyUSA poll of 575 registered voters found Klobuchar ahead at 52% compared to Lindell’s 32%. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race favorably for Democrats.

Recent Developments

This race attracts national attention due to a significant welfare fraud investigation involving Feeding Our Future. Authorities estimate it cost taxpayers around $250 million.

Political tensions in Minnesota are rising, enhancing national scrutiny on governance and policy debates there.