Independent Voters’ Diminishing Support for Trump in His Second Term

Research from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows decreasing support for President Donald Trump among independent voters during his second term. This decline is particularly evident among those without a college degree. Around the 2024 election, nearly half of these independents viewed Trump favorably. By the spring, this approval dropped to about one-quarter.

This change has eliminated the educational disparity seen among independents before Trump’s second term started. Independents now share a similarly negative view of the president, regardless of education level.

The analysis combines data from nearly 24 AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026. It covers distinct periods such as the last six months of 2024, Trump’s first 100 days, the summer of 2025, last fall’s government shutdown, and the onset of the Iran war. Results indicate a consistent decline in Trump’s support among independents throughout his second term. This downturn also includes Hispanic and Black independents, groups he gained in the 2024 election.

Many Americans now identify as independents, a pivotal group that moved towards Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Declining support here could pose issues for Trump and Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, often seen as a referendum on the current administration.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC, highlighted that while views among Democrats and Republicans regarding Trump have remained steady, independents’ perspectives are still shifting. He noted, “Independents are the group reacting to events and withdrawing their support.”

Early Declines in Trump’s Second Term

Trump’s return to the presidency was partly due to independent voters who perceived him as stronger on economic issues. However, their opinions soured once he assumed office again. Initially, uneducated independents had a more positive view of Trump compared to their educated counterparts. However, this changed within the first few months of his term.

Positive sentiment among independents without a college degree fell from 48% pre-election to 31% during the first 100 days of his return. This support reduced further, reaching one-quarter during the government shutdown and early 2026.

Meanwhile, only 3 in 10 college-educated independents had a positive view of Trump before he took office, with their decline to one-quarter being less significant. Sean Collins, another NORC research associate, remarked on the unexpected steepness of the decline among non-college-educated independents, a group typically pivotal in Trump’s coalition.

Shifting Opinions Among Hispanic and Younger Independents

Non-college-educated Americans have long been crucial in Trump’s support base. However, in 2024, Trump made inroads among typically Democrat-leaning demographics, including Hispanic adults. Around 42% of independents voted for Trump in 2024, an increase from 37% in 2020. Particularly, independents without a college education favored Trump over Kamala Harris in the last election, and Hispanic independents were nearly evenly split.

Yet, recent trends appear less favorable. Nearly half of Hispanic independents viewed Trump positively around the election. Their approval plummeted to 15% during last fall’s government shutdown, stabilizing around one-quarter in the spring. Younger independents also showed reduced support, contrasting the stable sentiment among those aged 60 and above. Addtional AP-NORC polling indicated economic concerns soured younger Republicans and increased dissatisfaction among Hispanic Americans.

Torres commented, “Trump’s gains during the election don’t seem lasting. There have been notable changes among these groups.”

Economic Woes Affecting Independents’ Views

For many independents, the economy is the central issue clouding their support for Trump. AP VoteCast revealed that nearly half of Trump’s independent backers in 2024 prioritized inflation. Most were worried about soaring food and gas prices. Over a year into Trump’s second term, high inflation persists, with gas prices affected by the ongoing Iran war.

An April AP-NORC poll showed about 3 in 10 independents were “extremely” or “very” concerned about affording groceries, with similar concerns for gas prices. The analysis found those with negative economic perceptions often viewed Trump unfavorably. About 80% of independents labeled the economy as poor this spring.

According to May’s AP-NORC polling, roughly 3 in 10 independents endorsed Trump’s economic handling, mirroring approval rates from the start of his second term. In April, merely 12% of independents approved Trump’s approach to the cost of living.

The AP-NORC study examined responses from 4,836 independents over 21 surveys, conducted in five periods before and during Trump’s second term. Independents were defined as those not identifying with or leaning towards the Democratic or Republican Party.