Democrat Josh Turek Narrowly Leads in Iowa Senate Race Poll

Democrat Josh Turek has a slight lead over Republican Ashley Hinson in the Iowa Senate race, according to a new internal poll. Iowa, a state that supported Barack Obama in previous elections, has become a Republican stronghold. The shift occurred over the past decade, with Iowa backing Donald Trump by significant margins in recent elections. Democrats hope to make the Senate race competitive as Trump’s national approval ratings decline.

The upcoming race will indicate if Democrats can recover in the Midwest after a decade of setbacks. Current polling suggests a tight contest between Turek, a state legislator, and Hinson, a U.S. Representative, competing to replace the retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst.

“Newsweek reached out for comment from both the Hinson and Turek campaigns.”

Turek Edges Out Hinson in New Poll

Global Strategy Group conducted a poll showing Turek ahead by 2 points over Hinson. Turek has support from 47% of respondents versus 45% for Hinson. The survey highlights Trump’s reduced popularity in Iowa, with 45% viewing him favorably while 52% have an unfavorable opinion. This poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between June 8 and June 11 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Other Polls Show Tight Race

The race remains close despite Iowa’s Republican leanings. A Public Policy Polling survey found both candidates supported by 46% of respondents. An Echelon Insights poll showed Turek leading by 1 point, 46% to 45%. Earlier, a GBAO poll showed Hinson leading by 4 points, 47% to Turek’s 43%.

Prediction Markets Favor Hinson

Despite some polls favoring Turek, prediction markets give Hinson an edge. Kalshi and Polymarket estimate her chances of winning at 58% and 61%, respectively. Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers on outcomes, reacting to various influences like polling and political trends.

About Iowa’s Senate Candidates

Both candidates secured their nominations in recent primaries. Hinson, previously a journalist, represents northeastern Iowa in Congress since 2021, having flipped a competitive seat. She has Trump’s endorsement. Turek represents a southwestern Iowa district and previously competed in four Paralympic games in wheelchair basketball. He positions himself as moderate, hoping to attract Trump voters.

Iowa’s Political Shift

Iowa was once a battleground state, supporting Obama in the 2000s but has since strongly backed Trump in successive elections. This trend mirrors changes across the Midwest, where Democrats have lost support from white working-class voters who favor Republicans. Key issues for Republicans in November might include Trump’s tariffs and rising gas prices due to geopolitical tensions.

The Cook Political Report labels the Iowa race as Lean Republican. Political analysts Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman note Hinson’s financial advantage but acknowledge a closer race. Democrats face challenges despite some GOP-held seats being vulnerable.

Democrat’s Struggle for Senate Control

Democrats hope to regain the House of Representatives during midterms, often seen as a referendum on the ruling party. However, winning the Senate remains difficult. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority; Democrats need to flip four seats for control. North Carolina is pivotal for Democrats, as Trump won by single digits there.

States like Maine, Georgia, and Michigan, where Democrats defend seats, and those like Iowa, Texas, and Ohio, where Republicans need defense, are key battlegrounds. Prediction markets suggest the Senate will likely stay under Republican control.

Editors involved in this story: Gabe Whisnant and Anthony Murray.