Erosion of Trump’s Support Reflected in State-Level Polling

More than a year into President Donald Trump’s second term, an analysis reveals a noticeable decline in his approval ratings across the United States. This change is evident in both Republican-leaning and battleground states, traditionally strong supporters.

Decline in Net Approval

Every state has shown a decrease in net approval since Trump resumed office in January 2025. The most significant declines are observed in states that once showed strong support for him. Key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, and Nevada have now shifted to net disapproval.

The Civiqs rolling online tracking poll, which includes over 107,000 responses from registered voters, illustrates these trends. Comparing data from Trump’s first term to the latest figures shows a widespread reduction in net approval.

Biggest Drops in Support

Wyoming: +47 → +22 (down 25 points)
Kentucky: +23 → 0 (down 23 points)
Nebraska: +18 → -4 (down 22 points)
Alaska: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)
Florida: +9 → -12 (down 21 points)

The data indicates states that began with strong pro-Trump sentiments are now less secure. Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state, yet the support has significantly narrowed. Kentucky, previously solidly positive, is now evenly split.

Swing States Changes

In battleground states, minor shifts can have significant impacts. Notable changes include:

• Florida: +9 → -12
• Ohio: +8 → -11
• Nevada: 0 → -20
• Nebraska: +18 → -4

These shifts indicate that Trump is now facing net disapproval in states critical to national election outcomes.

Erosion in Republican Strongholds

Trump continues to have support in deeply Republican states, though with thinner margins. In places like Oklahoma and Tennessee, support remains positive but has decreased by roughly 20 points since January 2025. Even Wyoming shows a significant drop in net advantage.

Persistent Opposition in Democratic Areas

Democratic states began with low approval ratings for Trump, which have worsened further. States such as California and New York demonstrate deeper negative net approval numbers. Here, the opposition remains solidifying further.

Reasons Behind the Drop

The decline results from simultaneous increases in disapproval rates and decreases in approval ratings. For example, Wyoming’s approval dropped from 72% to 58%, while disapproval rose from 25% to 36%.

White House Response

The White House has downplayed the significance of current polls, instead highlighting Trump’s 2024 electoral win as evidence of public backing. Spokesperson Davis Ingle emphasizes ongoing economic priorities, including jobs and inflation, as central to the administration’s agenda.