Scientific papers on climate modeling rarely spark widespread public debates or capture the attention of government entities. However, this changed recently when a team of global researchers published a significant update to emissions scenarios used to study climate change.
When researchers model potential global temperature changes, they consider various possibilities regarding the emission of planet-warming pollutants. These scenarios undergo revisions approximately every seven years.
In the latest revision, the researchers dismissed a high-emissions scenario known as RCP8.5. This scenario has been a topic of frequent critique and has featured in numerous climate studies over the last decade. The scientists now regard it as “implausible” due to recent energy trends.
The decision stirred up debates among experts online. Critics of the RCP8.5 scenario have contested its realism for years, in large part because of its assumptions about coal usage at extremely high levels. They argue that studies and reports using this scenario have exaggerated climate risks. These critics questioned why it took so long for the scientific community to adjust its stance.
Counterarguments came from other researchers who highlighted that extreme warming scenarios cannot be entirely ruled out, despite potentially low odds. They believe that studying high-emissions scenarios holds significant scientific value.
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