Texas Data-Center Boom Risks Air Pollution Progress

Texas is experiencing a rapidly expanding data-center industry, which could jeopardize decades of efforts to reduce air pollution. This concern arises from a recent study by the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), which analyzed the substantial electricity needs of the state’s artificial intelligence (AI) growth. The assessment modeled the effects of meeting future data-center electricity demands on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur dioxide, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and carbon dioxide through 2031.

According to the researchers, the outcome depends significantly on how the additional electricity is produced. Presently, data centers are spreading throughout Texas, with records indicating projects in regions such as Abilene, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, and parts of West Texas. Qualifying data centers and projects are cataloged by the Texas comptroller, involving companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle.

The city of Abilene maintains specific information on data-center construction, including the Stargate project. Meanwhile, Fort Worth reported four data centers spanning 10 buildings and around 3 million square feet as of June. Further projects have been proposed in the area.

Pollution Could Reverse Years of Progress…

Over the past two decades, Texas has made notable reductions in emissions. Between 2002 and 2024, HARC found that NOx emissions from power generation dropped by 67 percent, sulfur dioxide by 80 percent, VOCs by 37 percent, carbon dioxide by 52 percent, and PM2.5 by 60 percent. However, the electricity demand from data centers could alter this progress.

In a scenario where new data-center demand is solely met by the Texas electricity grid using its future energy mix, the research suggests NOx emissions might escalate by 136 percent over HARC’s projected no-data-center baseline in 2031, nearing 2004 levels. VOC emissions could surpass their 2002 volume by 32 percent, while PM2.5 levels may revert to their 2006 figures.

Power sources significantly influence outcomes. HARC highlighted that emissions, particularly nitrogen oxides, could be two to ten times higher if data centers burn fuel to generate electricity instead of leveraging a combination of grid electricity, solar, and wind power. Even with the cleanest energy scenario analyzed, data-center expansion is projected to increase emissions due to their substantial electricity needs.

Texas Data Center Demand Surges

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) provided figures illustrating potential data-center development. In August, details from Republican Governor Greg Abbott’s office indicated ERCOT was evaluating over 474 gigawatts of grid connection requests, with about 90 percent coming from data centers. Abbott instructed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to audit these projects, examining their electricity and water requirements and plans for on-site generation.

Further actions in September saw Abbott directing the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to pause permits for data centers until ERCOT completed its audit, citing grid reliability and natural resource concerns. HARC concluded that future emissions in Texas depend on current decisions about power supply, adding that the anticipated growth in data centers could lead from modest increases in emissions to potentially undoing much of the past two decades’ progress.