Trump Campaigns Across Texas to Support Ken Paxton in Tight Senate Race

President Donald Trump is actively campaigning throughout the country, aiming to consolidate conservative support and counter a potential Democratic surge in the upcoming midterms. He plans to return to Texas on October 27 to assist Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a closely contested race. Despite Democratic hopes, the race remains tight.

Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, is striving to become the first Democrat to secure statewide victory in Texas since 1994. Talarico has consistently led Paxton in polls but by narrow margins. Paxton carries the burden of a 2023 impeachment and acquittal, alongside securities fraud charges resolved in 2024. Despite these issues, polling data shows the race is exceptionally close.

Some GOP operatives caution that Trump’s presence might adversely affect their candidates in such tight contests. The president’s approval ratings are falling, with voters expressing dissatisfaction over gas prices, living costs, and foreign conflicts. However, in Texas, a traditionally Republican stronghold, Trump’s appearances, including a significant midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas, have not negatively impacted Paxton. The race has become tighter following Trump’s rally in San Antonio.

Nick Maddux, a senior adviser to Paxton, emphasized the campaign’s focus on maintaining the Republican majority. “AG Paxton is grateful for the support and understands the importance of Texas in maintaining the majority. He’s engaging with Texans daily, fundraising, and conveying his message directly to the people,” Maddux stated.

Texas Senate Polls Before and After Trump Campaign Support

The surveys conducted before and after Trump’s events in Dallas and San Antonio indicate a narrowing race, potentially influenced by both campaign activities and substantial advertising efforts.

Before the rallies, various polls showed Talarico slightly ahead. For instance, Marist indicated a shrink in Talarico’s lead from six points in September to two points in October. Meanwhile, a survey partly overlapping Trump’s rally exhibited Talarico’s lead decreasing from six points to four. Conversely, the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group recorded an increase in Talarico’s lead from one to four points.

Overall, polls taken after the San Antonio rally suggest a shift of roughly 2.4 points towards Paxton. The latest University of Houston’s Hobby School survey reported Talarico leading at 48% to Paxton’s 46%.

Key Implications of the Texas Senate Race

No Democrat has secured a Texas Senate position since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, despite robust Democratic campaigns over the last two decades. For Democrats to gain a Senate majority, defending their seats and flipping four Republican seats, including Texas, is crucial.

Paxton advanced from a challenging primary against incumbent Senator John Cornyn, with Trump’s endorsement being pivotal. The race currently stands at a “Toss Up,” according to The Cook Political Report.

Early voting runs through October 30, while Election Day is on November 3.

Upcoming Trump Rallies in Texas for Paxton

The Republican National Committee has scheduled rallies in Lubbock and Waco, locations Trump previously carried strongly. These events aim to rally the Republican base further.

Despite claims from Paxton that past events like the Dallas convention negatively impacted GOP candidates, Trump’s presence remains a focal point of his campaign strategy.

Nationally, Trump’s approval rating is under scrutiny, and some Republican figures have distanced themselves from his association in their campaigns. Talarico’s absence due to illness in early October was a campaign pivot point, mocked by Trump but leading to a strong return.

Fundraising Dynamics: Talarico vs. Paxton

In terms of fundraising, Talarico outpaces Paxton significantly. Talarico reported a $64 million third-quarter fundraising, with contributions mainly under $100. His campaign, however, spent more than it raised within the quarter.

In contrast, Paxton’s campaign collected around $18 million during the same period, highlighting a financial gap extending into key suburban battlegrounds.

An analysis of contributions revealed Talarico outperformed Paxton in numerous suburban counties, critical for the election outcome.

Republican groups have invested over $175 million to back Paxton, receiving substantial financial support from Elon Musk among others.

With significant investments pouring into the race, the Texas Senate race remains one of the most critical midterm elections with potential national implications.