Potential Development of a Tropical Storm in the Atlantic Ocean

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued an update indicating increased chances for an Atlantic Ocean disturbance east of the United States to develop into a tropical storm within the next seven days. This news comes amidst an unusually quiet Atlantic hurricane season, which has yet to produce a hurricane this year.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, was predicted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to be below average. The forecast called for eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes. So far, five tropical storms have formed, including Tropical Storm Edouard on August 31.

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, is a significant factor contributing to the slow season. It has led to above-average sea temperatures and weakened trade winds in the tropical Pacific. The phenomenon is expected to continue strengthening through the end of the year, with a more than 90 percent likelihood of becoming “very strong” in the fall and winter months. Though El Niño’s impacts are most noticeable in the U.S. during colder months, it affects both Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons.

In the Atlantic basin, most tropical storms and hurricanes occur between mid-August and October. El Niño can reduce activity by increasing wind shear, which disrupts storm systems before they can strengthen. In contrast, warmer water temperatures and reduced wind shear due to El Niño can lead to more storms in the Pacific. Despite its influence on the quiet Atlantic season, this pattern might change soon. Meteorologists at the NHC are tracking a disturbance near Bermuda that may form into a tropical storm within a week.

The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Fay. According to the latest forecast, the disturbance has a 40 percent chance of strengthening. As of Monday afternoon, it was situated 1,000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A forecast map showed the disturbance moving west toward the U.S. East Coast.

“Environmental conditions over the system are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week,” stated the NHC.

AccuWeather meteorologists also indicate a medium chance of development, predicting a storm may form between September 17 and September 21. According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno, “Sometimes storms like this spin down to the surface, and if conditions allow, they can evolve into a tropical or subtropical storm.”

While wind shear remains widespread across the Atlantic basin, it is lower near Bermuda, diminishing the potential for disruption to the disturbance before forming.

In comparison, last year’s Atlantic hurricane season was below normal with 13 named storms, including one hurricane and four major hurricanes. At this point last year, six named storms had formed, with Erin becoming a major hurricane. An average season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

As of Monday afternoon, no tropical storm watches or warnings are in effect. The NHC will continue monitoring the disturbance and provide updates. Despite a below-average forecast, forecasters caution that a single storm can cause significant damage. Residents in hurricane-prone areas should stay informed and prepared.