Analysis of Claims About Noncitizen Voting in 2020 Election

In a recent challenge to the 2020 U.S. election results, former President Donald Trump cited a report alleging that thousands of noncitizens voted. Studies indicate such practices are rare. Trump’s Truth Social post referenced a report from the U.S. Census Bureau, claiming it found 24,000 noncitizens voted illegally after comparing voter records from 2020 against citizenship records.

Examining the Claim

The claim suggests a Census Bureau report demonstrates that over 24,000 noncitizens participated in the 2020 election. Experts refute this, pointing to flawed methodologies in the report.

Understanding the Methodology

The report used data from a commercial voter file and federal records to identify alleged noncitizen voters. Experts argue this approach likely introduced errors, such as incorrect linkage of names to addresses or outdated citizenship statuses. Details on error rates and verification procedures were absent.

“This is the weakest methodology description I’ve ever seen in a Census Bureau publication,” noted Mark Lindeman from Verified Voting, calling it more of a propaganda effort.

The report leaves out crucial details, such as the databases used and potential error sources, further undermining its credibility. Over 32 million voter records remain unanalyzed, according to the seven-page report.

Potential Sources of Error

Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, highlighted three potential error sources: the private vendor’s voter file, federal records, and the record linkage process. Data errors might misidentify individuals due to shared names or birthdays, or incorrect citizenship status updates.

Barry Burden from the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Elections Research Center criticized the report’s rigor and reliance on private data, unlike typical Census reports. Missing methodological details also raise concerns.

Impact on Election Results

Trump also reiterated unfounded claims of victory in 2020, urging for voter ID laws through the SAVE America Act, which is stuck in the Senate amid bipartisan opposition.

If the report’s findings were accurate, the impact would still be negligible. The 24,000 alleged noncitizen votes represent only 0.015% of the total 158,429,631 votes cast. Biden’s margin of victory was over 7 million more votes than Trump’s.

“All of the numbers cited…are smaller than the margins of victory in each state,” said David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research.

Despite Trump’s claims, no substantial evidence supports widespread noncitizen voting affecting the election outcome, according to various reports and analyses.

For detailed fact checks, visit AP Fact Checks.