Tight Race in Wisconsin’s Gubernatorial Primary

In Wisconsin’s gubernatorial primary, State Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, competes closely with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley. Crowley, the candidate favored by the party establishment, leads Hong by around 2,000 votes, about 0.4 percent, with 98 percent of votes counted as of 2 a.m. local time.

Both candidates are awaiting final ballots before deciding their next steps. A recount could be possible if the margin remains under 1 percentage point. Elections officials reported a delay in the results of approximately 28,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee, crucial for the race outcome. Paulina Gutiérrez, Milwaukee Election Commission’s executive director, cited ‘human error’ in the ballot download process. The results are expected early Wednesday.

“We have built something that will change politics forever,” Hong expressed to supporters on Tuesday night. “The work we have done will be remembered. Though the final results aren’t in, we are ready to keep fighting.”

The Crowley campaign commented on Wednesday, expressing optimism but acknowledging that the race isn’t over until all votes are counted.

The primary winner will face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November. This election will challenge the progressive appeal in a key battleground state. Democrats aim to leverage President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings to retain the governor’s office and potentially control both legislative chambers, which the party hasn’t achieved since 2010.

Crowded Field Narrowed to Two

Governor Tony Evers’ decision not to seek a third term led to a crowded race for his successor. Tiffany, endorsed by Trump, easily won his Republican primary. However, the Democratic field narrowed to Hong and Crowley.

Crowley, who initially dropped out in July, re-entered the race after Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez ended her campaign amid a finance scandal. Evers, initially neutral, supported Crowley. Establishment Democrats worry Hong’s victory might facilitate a Tiffany win because her platform could be less appealing to moderates and independents crucial in Wisconsin.

Hong has energized the left, but major progressives like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders haven’t endorsed her. They have supported other progressives, such as Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

Ocasio-Cortez noted on ABC’s This Week that her focus is on reclaiming congressional control, which is why she hasn’t endorsed Hong.

Polling Misjudged Crowley’s Support

Polling underestimated Crowley’s support in the race. Public surveys consistently depicted Hong as the frontrunner. State Navigate’s survey, involving 1,473 likely Democratic voters from August 3 to 6, showed Hong leading by 22 points. She had 44 percent support, Crowley 22 percent, state Senator Kelda Roys 11 percent, and nonprofit executive Joel Brennan 5 percent. The margin of error was 2.3 percentage points.

Hong led in five Marquette University Law School polls; the latest, from July 22 to 27, showed her with 38 percent support. Mandela Barnes followed at 16 percent, and Crowley had 7 percent. Thirty-four percent remained undecided.

The situation is evolving. Further updates will follow.