Incumbent Losses in 2026 Primaries Reflect Political Shifts

Incumbents in Congress face a challenging primary season. Notably, Colorado’s Diana DeGette has recently lost renomination in the 2026 midterm election cycle, according to Decision Desk HQ.

The significant number of incumbent losses reflects changes in both the Democratic and Republican parties. Many Democratic voters are frustrated with party leadership over what they view as a weak response to President Donald Trump’s second term and have backed some insurgent progressives. Other primaries have concerned generational issues. Several Republicans who have drawn Trump’s ire have lost renomination, with the president endorsing primary challengers.

Over a dozen more states have upcoming primaries, potentially increasing incumbent losses.

Comparison to Recent Election Cycles

House of Representatives Incumbent Losses

To date, seven House incumbents have lost renomination in primaries, an increase from four in 2024. In 2020, a record-setting eight incumbents lost in primaries during a non-redistricting cycle. Four lost in 2018, five in 2016, and four lost during 2010 primaries.

Redistricting years saw higher numbers: 2022 had 15 incumbent losses and 2012 had 12. Incumbents were often drawn into the same districts, resulting in primary elections between incumbents.

Senate Incumbent Losses

Senate primary defeats are less common, with two incumbent GOP senators losing renomination so far. The last Senate primary loss occurred in 2017 when Senator Luther Strange lost the GOP primary in Alabama. In 2012, GOP Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana lost renomination. Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski lost her 2010 primary but won the general election with a write-in campaign.

Reasons for Incumbent Losses in 2026

Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, explains that voters often desire change, making midterms challenging for the president’s party. He describes 2026 as particularly intense as President Trump aggressively ousts Republican incumbents viewed as disloyal.

Democratic contests also reveal growing anger as many voters seek nominees promising to take a more confrontational stance against President Trump than some current elected officials.

Notable Incumbent Losses in 2026

Senator Bill Cassidy (Louisiana Republican)

Cassidy lost in Louisiana’s Senate race, with Trump-backed Representative Julia Letlow winning the nomination. Cassidy, previously critical of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccinations, faced backlash over his impeachment trial vote against Trump.

Senator John Cornyn (Texas Republican)

Cornyn also lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger, Ken Paxton. Cornyn, a traditional Republican, drew criticism for supporting a 2022 bipartisan gun-safety bill. He lost to Paxton in the runoff by a 64-36 margin.

Representative Dan Crenshaw (Texas Republican)

Steve Toth, seen as more MAGA-aligned, defeated Crenshaw. Crenshaw, criticized for supporting aid to Ukraine and certifying the 2020 election results, emphasized the need for truth in the face of misinformation.

Representative Diana DeGette (Colorado Democrat)

Melat Kiros, from the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated DeGette in Colorado’s more progressive 1st District. DeGette was seen as less progressive on certain issues like Israel.

Representative Adriano Espaillat (New York Democrat)

Espaillat lost to Darializa Avila Chevalier, a progressive activist in New York’s 13th District. Avila Chevalier criticized Espaillat’s lack of progressiveness, especially regarding Israel.

Representative Dan Goldman (New York Democrat)

Former comptroller Brad Lander defeated Goldman, aligning with a wave of progressive lawmakers. Many saw Goldman as a poor fit for a progressive district.

Representative Al Green (Texas Democrat)

Generational differences defined Green’s loss to Christian Menefee, as aging leadership remains a concern following major shifts in Democratic leadership.

Representative Julie Johnson (Texas Democrat)

Johnson lost to former Representative Collin Allred due to redistricting making her district more conservative.

Representative Thomas Massie (Kentucky Republican)

Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeated Massie, who became one of Trump’s top GOP foes. Their relationship suffered over foreign policy and the release of Jeffrey Epstein files.

Upcoming Competitive Primaries

Several primaries remain competitive. Justice Democrats endorsed candidates like Donavan McKinney against Rep. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and Cori Bush against Rep. Wesley Bell in Missouri. In California, Mai Vang and Angela Gonzales-Torres are challenging incumbents.

Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee trails in polls against Helena Foulkes, with local issues such as the Washington Bridge closure affecting popularity.