Georgia GOP Gubernatorial Runoff Sees Tight Race with Polls Showing Shifting Support

The Republican gubernatorial runoff in Georgia is becoming more competitive as recent polling reveals a shift in voter support. Businessman Rick Jackson is now leading Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, reversing the initial advantage Jones held. This change comes despite Jones’ backing from former President Donald Trump.

The Cygnal polling memo highlights this evolving dynamic. Initially, Jones led the first-choice ballot conducted on May 28, with 41 percent of the vote compared to Jackson’s 38 percent. By June 7, Jackson had surged to 46 percent while Jones’ support dropped to 35 percent. The memo remarks that, “the race has gone from +0 to a +12 Jackson lead when accounting for first-ballot undecideds being forced to choose a candidate on a subsequent lean ballot.” This represents a significant 14-point swing from Jones to Jackson.

On a combined ballot, Jackson now holds 56 percent of the vote to Jones’ 44 percent. The memo points out that, “Jones has not had a single day where he closed the spread.”

Other polls provide a slightly different perspective. A CivicLens Research survey shows Jones with a 10-point advantage at 50 percent versus Jackson’s 40 percent, with 10 percent undecided. This survey, involving 700 likely GOP runoff voters, was done from May 29 to June 1 and carries a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

A JMC Enterprises poll conducted on May 26 and May 27 among 600 likely voters found Jackson ahead by 2 points, 45 percent to Jones’ 43 percent. About 12 percent remained undecided, and the poll has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

Despite varying poll results, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket seem to favor Jones, with respective probabilities of 58 percent and 61 percent for his nomination as of the last update.

Georgia Gubernatorial Race

Georgia continues to be a battleground state in U.S. politics. It voted for Trump in 2024, though both U.S. Senate seats are held by Democrats, and the governorship is Republican. The winner of the Republican runoff will compete against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms in the general election.

Trump’s endorsement plays a substantial role in GOP primaries. He has influenced multiple races this cycle, further entrenching his influence in the Republican platform. His endorsed candidates have triumphed over notable incumbents like Representative Thomas Massie and Senators Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn.

Governor Brian Kemp, who is term-limited, once clashed with Trump post-2020 election by refusing to challenge Georgia’s voting results. However, they later reconciled, with Kemp supporting Trump’s 2024 campaign. This conflict and reconciliation exemplify Georgia Republicans’ tendency to occasionally oppose Trump on critical issues.