Nancy Mace Trailing in South Carolina Republican Primary

Representative Nancy Mace is currently trailing other Republican candidates in the latest polls for the South Carolina gubernatorial primary. As Election Day approaches, many Republicans seem divided over her ideological positions and her contentious relationship with former President Donald Trump. This election serves as a critical test for the Republican Party’s direction and gauges whether the conservative base in South Carolina will support a candidate who has broken from Trump, against his endorsed candidate, Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette.

Governor Henry McMaster cannot seek a third term due to term limits, leading several candidates to enter the race to succeed him. These candidates include Mace, Evette, Representative Ralph Norman, businessman Rom Reddy, and Attorney General Alan Wilson. Newsweek contacted each campaign for comment via email.

South Carolina Governor Race: Final Polls

Polls indicate a competitive race ahead of the June 9 primary. If no candidate garners more than 50 percent support, a runoff election will occur on June 23 between the top two candidates.

Recent surveys reflect this tight race:

• Co/Efficient (June 2-4, 879 likely voters, MOE of +/- 3.31 percent)
• The Tyson Group (June 1-3, 500 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.4 percent)
• The Citadel (May 21-31, 600 likely voters, MOE of +/- 4.5 percent)

Professor Robert Oldendick from the University of South Carolina commented that many Republican candidates are targeting voters with similar policies such as eliminating state income tax and improving government efficiency. He noted that both Evette and Wilson have the advantage of high name recognition due to their roles as statewide officials.

Mace’s fluctuating relationship with Trump and her actions in Congress have impacted her campaign’s momentum, according to Oldendick. He remarked, “When she was initially elected, she was confident and loyal to Trump, but she later crossed paths with him on several issues, stirring controversies with some of her congressional decisions.”

What Do Prediction Markets Show?

Prediction markets favor Evette to win the nomination. Her chances increased after Trump endorsed her on May 29. Trump praised her for her unwavering loyalty and support during his campaigns.

Currently, on Kalshi, Evette holds a 77 percent chance of winning, followed by Wilson at 17 percent and Mace at 4.3 percent. Polymarket shows similar figures, giving Evette a 73 percent chance, Wilson a 13 percent chance, and Mace a 4 percent chance.

Prediction markets operate by letting traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes. This trading aggregates real-money bets into probability estimates. Although they reflect trader sentiment, these markets do not always forecast the future accurately.

Nancy Mace and Donald Trump’s Relationship Over the Years: Timeline

Nancy Mace has experienced a tumultuous relationship with Trump over the years. Initially seen as a budding figure in South Carolina politics, she was an early supporter of Trump, serving as a coalitions director for his 2016 campaign. Trump endorsed her 2020 congressional campaign against Democrat Joe Cunningham, which she won narrowly.

Their relationship soured after the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot. Mace criticized Trump but did not vote for his impeachment, saying, “His entire legacy was wiped out yesterday.” Trump endorsed another Republican, Katie Arrington, during Mace’s 2022 reelection bid. Despite this, Mace won renomination with 53 percent of the vote.

In 2023, their feud seemed to soften, with Mace expressing willingness to cooperate with Trump for the national good. By January 2024, she endorsed Trump, citing the need to counteract policies from Biden’s administration. Trump returned as president, and Mace established herself as a strong conservative and Trump ally, although their differences were notable.

Trump ultimately backed Evette in the primary because of her consistent loyalty, according to Politico. “I’m still the MAGA candidate. I support all of MAGA’s policies and our president, but I’m also an independent conservative,” Mace stated.

Democrats’ Chances of Winning the South Carolina Governorship

While Democrats find promise in the 2026 midterms due to Trump’s low national approval ratings, forecasters do not predict a competitive gubernatorial race in South Carolina. Sources like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the state safe for Republicans in November.

On Kalshi, Republicans have a nearly 91 percent chance of maintaining the governorship, with Polymarket showing a 92 percent chance. Oldendick noted that due to their fundraising success and name recognition, Republicans are likely to hold their ground in the historically red state.

Oldendick added, “National trends showing potential Democratic gains aren’t significantly influential here. South Carolina remains a solid Republican state, having supported Trump by 18 points in 2024. It last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976, and the previous Democratic governor lost reelection in 2002.”