Winter 2026-2027 Weather Forecasts: A Closer Look

Winter may feel distant in September, with mild temperatures and changing leaves, yet it’s closer than ever. What should you expect for the 2026-2027 winter season? Predicting specific weather is uncertain. You might face heavy snow or mild conditions, depending on the source.

Almanac Predictions

The Old Farmer’s Almanac and Farmers’ Almanac have shared their winter forecasts. The Farmers’ Almanac anticipates snow, sleet, and some surprises. Meanwhile, the Old Farmer’s Almanac foresees a milder winter, though colder and snowier spots will appear.

The Farmers’ Almanac outlines their forecast for seven U.S. regions. The Upper Plains and Midwest might see snow, the Gulf and southern East Coast appear wetter, and New England could encounter coastal storms. In contrast, the Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights a mild season for most states. Exceptions include cold in the Ohio Valley and southern New England, with Hawaii experiencing cool temperatures. The Plains might stay dry, while the Pacific Coast and Midwest could grow wetter.

Predictive Accuracy

Views on these predictions vary. Research shows the accuracy rate for the Farmers’ Almanac historically at 50%, yet both almanacs claim 80% accuracy. Retired meteorologist Rich Segal suggests relying on such distant forecasts can be risky, given uncertainty even within 24 hours.

National Weather Service Input

The National Weather Service provides its long-range weather outlooks, noting they cannot predict specific events like major storms. Jon Gottschalck from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center mentions their impracticality. Recently, the Climate Prediction Center released forecasts suggesting warmer-than-normal temperatures, largely due to El Niño. This weather pattern influences conditions through 2026, with warmer and drier northern states and cooler, wetter southern states.

Despite occasional cold bursts in the central and northern U.S., Brian James, Nexstar’s chief meteorologist, hints at a generally warm winter for the northern states, with limited snowfall.

Evaluating Predictions

The reliability of almanac predictions remains subjective. Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac, acknowledges refinement in their methodology while admitting nature’s unpredictability.