Trump’s Approval Ratings Lag in Key States Before Midterms

A month ahead of the November midterm elections, President Donald Trump faces low approval ratings across 39 states and all major battleground states. Civiqs’ online polling, involving 133,869 registered voters between January 20, 2025, and October 2, 2026, reveals these figures. An analysis by Newsweek compares these state ratings with those at the start of Trump’s second term. The net approval reflects the difference between approval and disapproval rates. Nationally, 34% approve and 60% disapprove of Trump’s performance, resulting in a net approval rating of -26.

Key Insights

Every significant battleground shows negative approval rates. Georgia leads with a -25 rating, followed by Michigan and Nevada at -24, then Pennsylvania at -22. Kentucky shows the most significant decline since January 2025, dropping 33 points from +23 to -10. Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest state with an +18 net rating, trailed by North Dakota at +15. Younger voters, independents, and those with postgraduate education are significant groups opposing Trump.

Significance of Approval Rates

Presidential approval ratings are not direct election forecasts but indicate the political environment influencing candidates. With congressional control at stake on November 3, Trump’s negative ratings might affect Republican voter turnout, campaign strategies, and crucial races in contested states.

Positive Ratings in Republican Strongholds

Trump retains positive ratings in ten states, primarily those leaning Republican. Wyoming tops the list with +18, followed by North Dakota at +15 and West Virginia at +12. Other states include Arkansas at +9, Idaho at +8, and Alabama at +6. South Dakota shows a +5 rating, Oklahoma at +4, Kansas at +3, and Utah at +2. Montana is tied with 46% approval and disapproval each. Even in these states, Trump’s ratings have declined since January 2025.

Demographic Insights

National demographic data sheds light on state-level trends. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 20% approve, and 73% disapprove of Trump’s performance. For ages 35 to 49, 26% approve, and 66% disapprove. Older voters show less negativity, yet Trump remains below water, with a 44% approval among ages 50 to 64 and a 44% approval among voters 65 and older. Independents disapprove by 65% compared to a 27% approval, while Republicans support Trump by 78% to 12%. Female voters disapprove 65% to 29%, while male disapproval stands at a 54-to-39 split. Educational division shows Trump’s approval at 24% among postgraduates, 32% among college graduates, and 37% among those without college degrees, yet disapproval still surpasses approval in all educational levels. Black voters disapprove 90% to 7%, Hispanic voters 70% to 26%, and white voters 52% to 41%.

Battleground Challenges

The battleground states are challenging for Trump a month before the elections. His most recent net ratings are:

• Arizona: -18
• Florida: -16
• Georgia: -25
• Michigan: -24
• Nevada: -24
• North Carolina: -15
• Ohio: -17
• Pennsylvania: -22
• Wisconsin: -18

Many of these states were either positive or balanced at the start of Trump’s term. Florida changed from +9 to -16, Ohio from +8 to -17, and Nevada from 0 to -24. North Carolina went from 0 to -15. While these figures don’t directly reflect congressional candidate support, they showcase the political climate Republicans face during the campaign’s closing month.

Notable Approval Declines

Trump’s net approval rates are lower in every state compared to January 20, 2025. Significant drops include:

• Kentucky: from +23 to -10, a 33-point decrease
• Wyoming: from +47 to +18, down 29 points
• Oklahoma: from +31 to +4, down 27 points
• Tennessee: from +25 to -2, down 27 points
• Texas: from +6 to -21, down 27 points
• Idaho: from +34 to +8, down 26 points
• Alaska: from +9 to -6, down 25 points
• Ohio: from +8 to -17, down 25 points
• Florida: from +9 to -16, down 25 points
• Montana: from +25 to 0, down 25 points
• Nevada: from 0 to -24, down 24 points

Marked declines were observed in states initially giving Trump strong approval, not only Democratic-leaning states where opposition was already high.

Democratic States Maintain Firm Opposition

Trump’s weakest ratings persist in traditionally Democratic states. Hawaii holds the lowest approval at -58, with Maryland at -52 and Vermont at -51. California and Massachusetts both register -47, and Connecticut -46. Washington state shows -42, New York -39, and Oregon and Rhode Island -38. The changes are less stark compared to some Republican states since Trump’s approval levels were already low at the start of his second term.

White House Response

The White House has downplayed polling significance, emphasizing the 2024 election win as a mandate of public support. Spokesperson Davis Ingle points to nearly 80 million votes as evidence of Trump’s agenda’s popularity. Ingle stated, “The ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024,” asserting that Americans chose Trump for a “popular and sensible agenda.” Trump continues to focus on job creation, reducing inflation, and enhancing housing affordability. The administration claims “historic progress” is underway. The White House anticipates further achievements as the agenda unfolds. Newsweek reached out to the White House for additional comments.