Trump Faces Declining Approval in Key States

President Donald Trump is experiencing low approval ratings in several states he won by a wide margin in the 2024 election. This signals growing dissatisfaction even in areas where his support was previously robust, posing challenges for Republicans in the upcoming November midterms. According to Civiqs’ tracking poll, Trump’s national approval stands at 36%, with 59% disapproval, resulting in a -24 net approval rating. Over 120,000 registered voters have been polled since January 2025.

Approval Decline in Republican Strongholds

Despite strong initial support, Trump’s approval rating has decreased in 11 states he won by at least 10 percentage points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Factors influencing this include tariffs on trading partners and the announcement of a war with Iran, affecting states like Kentucky and Missouri.

State	Net Approval Rating	Approve	Disapprove
Alaska	-14	40%	54%
Florida	-12	42%	54%
Iowa	-14	44%	49%
Kentucky	-3	39%	53%
Louisiana	-4	45%	49%
Missouri	-7	44%	51%
Mississippi	-1	47%	48%
Nebraska	-3	45%	48%
Ohio	-13	40%	53%
South Carolina	-9	42%	51%
Texas	-13	40%	54%

Even in states where Trump’s approval remains relatively high, such as Wyoming and North Dakota, his ratings have decreased since the start of his second term.

Midterm Election Implications

The drop in approval ratings in key states could impact the midterm elections, where Republicans aim to maintain their slim congressional majorities. Democrats are focused on securing four additional Senate seats to gain control.

In Iowa, the competitive race between Democratic state Representative Josh Turek and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson could prove pivotal. Similarly, Ohio poses a challenge for Republicans, with former Senator Sherrod Brown aiming to unseat Jon Husted. Texas features a high-stakes contest between Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

Challenges in Swing States

Trump is also facing a decline in support across seven swing states crucial to the 2024 election, which might further hinder Republican chances.

• Arizona: -12 (42% approve, 53% disapprove)
• Georgia: -22 (36% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Michigan: -21 (37% approve, 58% disapprove)
• Nevada: -21 (37% approve, 58% disapprove)
• North Carolina: -15 (40% approve, 55% disapprove)
• Pennsylvania: -18 (38% approve, 56% disapprove)
• Wisconsin: -16 (40% approve, 56% disapprove)

White House Response

The White House downplays Trump’s approval ratings, emphasizing the electoral victory as a testament to public support. Spokesman Davis Ingle asserts that Trump possesses a mandate to fulfill his agenda and remains a dominant political figure.