Trump Campaigns in Kansas Senate Race Amid Toss-Up Classification

President Donald Trump will visit Kansas on Sunday to bolster support for Republican Senator Roger Marshall. This comes as the state’s Senate race, traditionally Republican, has been labeled a “Toss Up” by Fox News. Trump plans to campaign with Marshall in Salina, just days before Election Day. Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, in what has become a closely monitored contest. Trump’s speech at Salina Regional Airport is set for 6 p.m. local time, with the event opening at 2:30 p.m.

The reclassification of the Kansas race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” by Fox News signifies a shift. The network noted that Republicans are dedicating more resources to Kansas than expected, which influenced the change. “Kansas is traditionally conservative, but the focus of Republican efforts suggests that Sen. Roger Marshall’s lead over Democrat Adam Hamilton isn’t assured,” according to Fox News’ Sunday Power Rankings update.

The Cook Political Report previously shifted its assessment of the Kansas Senate race to ‘Toss Up’ from ‘Lean Republican’ on October 6. In response, Trump has increased his support for Marshall as the election nears. He posted extensively on Truth Social, praising Marshall as “one of the Best Senators in the United States of America.” Trump warned that Marshall is “all that stands between the people of Kansas and Communists controlling the United States Senate.” He criticized Hamilton as a “Radical Left Phony” and endorsed Marshall’s policies on taxes, regulation, energy, and immigration. Trump urged citizens to get out and vote for Marshall.

Recent polls have shown Hamilton leading in Kansas, a state Trump won by over 16 points in the 2024 presidential election. This visit marks Trump’s second appearance for Marshall in Kansas in recent weeks, following a rally near Wichita on October 19. Trump urged Kansas voters to “pretend” he was on the ballot.

Trump’s current visit follows an unusual series of changes. Initially set for October 31 in Salina, the appearance was canceled in favor of tele-rallies. By Friday, the Kansas event was rescheduled for Sunday. Hamilton welcomed Trump, inviting him to meet Kansans impacted by Washington’s policies.

Through his social media, Trump encouraged early voting in Kansas. He emphasized the need for “massive turnout,” reminding supporters of the ongoing early voting through November 2. His message on Truth Social stated, “SO IMPORTANT — PLEASE GET OUT AND VOTE. MAGA!” Newsweek sought comments from Marshall’s and Hamilton’s campaigns.

What the Latest Polls Show

Recent polls suggest a shift towards Hamilton, with different margins of advantage. An Emerson College Polling survey from October 26-28 among 800 likely voters found Hamilton at 49%, Marshall at 45%, Libertarian David Graham at 3%, and 3% undecided. The credibility interval, akin to a margin of error, was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. When undecided voters were considered, Hamilton reached 50% and Marshall 47%.

This reflected a shift towards Hamilton from September’s Emerson poll, where Hamilton’s support rose from 45% to 49% and Marshall’s from 43% to 45%. A CNN/SSRS survey from October 20-26 among 838 likely voters placed Hamilton ahead at 49% to 45%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The advantage stayed within the survey’s margin of error. A Washington Post/Schar School poll conducted October 22-26 with 801 likely voters found Hamilton at 52%, Marshall at 43%, and Graham at 4%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. When undecided leaned towards major candidates, Hamilton led 54% to 44%.

A caution from that poll noted a higher response rate among Democrats than Republicans, highlighting potential nonresponse error. Conversely, an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 13-14 among 1,200 likely voters showed Marshall leading Hamilton by one point, 48% to 47%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points.

Fox News commented that about 10% of voters in recent high-quality Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas surveys were undecided or not backing major-party candidates, leaving outcomes uncertain.

Why Kansas Matters

Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. senator since the 1930s, so a Democratic win would mark a significant shift in its Senate voting history. However, Democrats have shown statewide and suburban electoral success in Kansas recently. Democrat Laura Kelly won the governorship in 2018 and 2022, while Representative Sharice Davids has repeatedly secured Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District. The Marshall-Hamilton race holds national significance.

Fox News predicts Democrats and Republicans controlling 48 and 45 Senate seats, respectively, with seven battlegrounds, including Kansas, determining the majority. The Senate map presents challenges for Democrats as Trump won seven of the 11 states seen as competitive, including Kansas, in 2024. To reach 51 seats, Democrats may need victories in Trump-won states. Kansas offers Democrats an unforeseen path toward a majority while compelling Republicans to defend a typically secure seat.