The Canadian Army’s Readiness for Modern Warfare

In September 1943, the First Canadian Division achieved a remarkable victory in Potenza, Italy, crucially assisting British and American forces. This victory prevented what could have been a severe defeat. Today, we must question whether the modern Canadian Army could replicate such success in a major military operation alongside U.S. forces.

Currently, the answer appears to be no. The primary reason is that, since the end of the Cold War, the Canadian Army has been optimized for ‘contribution warfare.’ This approach involves participating in multinational coalitions for operations not focused on large-scale combat. This strategy suited the post-Cold War era, where middle powers, including Canada, engaged mainly in peacekeeping and counterinsurgency roles. However, the world has changed, and the existing army structure no longer meets current needs, nor does it fulfill U.S. expectations for Canada’s military capabilities.

Inflection Point 2025: A Plan for Transformation

Recognizing the need for change, Ottawa has proposed a plan named Inflection Point 2025. Its goal is to develop a warfighting army designed, trained, and equipped for sustained major combat against peers or near-peer adversaries. While this is a promising initiative, it remains a plan without action. Echoing Robbie Burns, the best-laid plans often fail without proper execution. For this transformation to succeed, Ottawa must invest in recruitment, equipment, training, and systems to create genuine combat-ready units.

The Recruitment and Procurement Challenges

The plan assumes successful recruitment, intending to address a shortage of 3,000 soldiers and add 8,500 more personnel by 2040. However, historical challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining necessary personnel cast doubt on achieving these goals. Moreover, the Canadian procurement system, despite recent reforms, struggles to deliver high-quality equipment swiftly. More concerned with job creation and reducing dependence on U.S. arms, it often fails to meet the army’s functional needs.

Even with improved procurement, sustainment challenges remain. Establishing robust supply lines capable of supporting a division-sized unit in combat is critical. General Wayne Eyre highlighted this issue, explaining Canada might deplete some essential munitions within days in a conflict scenario similar to Ukraine, with replenishment taking years. Coupled with the difficulty of replacing fallen or injured soldiers, sustainment appears a significant obstacle.

Doctrinal Adaptation and Global Implications

The Canadian Army, like many in NATO, is slow to adapt its tactics and structures to meet modern battle requirements observed in the war in Ukraine. This hesitation could result in an army lacking the survivability, flexibility, and lethality anticipated by Inflection Point.

While these issues might seem Canadian, they significantly affect the United States. A competent Canadian Army is vital, as demonstrated in WWII. The success of future American operations may depend on a well-prepared Canadian unit arriving precisely when needed.

We hope not to face conflicts like Salerno again soon. However, if such a situation arises, Canada’s army should be well past its inflection point, ready to achieve strategic victories akin to Potenza.