Texas Senate Race: Talarico Takes Lead in Youth Vote

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s campaign for the U.S. Senate has seen a significant shift among young voters. While Paxton has been targeting this demographic, a recent poll indicates a rapid movement away from him.

According to data from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Democratic state Representative James Talarico is now leading Paxton 76 percent to 18 percent among likely voters under 35. This is a notable change from the center’s late July poll, which showed Talarico ahead by 30 points.

The race to succeed Senator John Cornyn, who lost the Republican nomination to Paxton, is extremely competitive. The poll shows Talarico with 47 percent of the overall vote compared to Paxton’s 46 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown holds 3 percent, and 4 percent of voters remain undecided. The poll surveyed 1,800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points.

Should Talarico secure a win, he would be the first Democrat in over three decades to win a statewide election in Texas.

Paxton’s Strategy and Its Results

Paxton’s campaign had actively engaged students with initiatives like the August 31 press release announcing 11 Students for Paxton chapters at various Texas colleges and universities. These were intended to serve as centers for recruitment and voter registration.

“I am incredibly proud to have students across our state stepping up to fight for the future of Texas,” Paxton remarked.

However, recent trends show a decline in his support. Initially, in July, 5 percent of voters under 35 supported Brown and 7 percent were undecided. By mid-September, Brown’s support dropped to 1 percent, and undecided voters decreased to 5 percent. Most of this shift favored Talarico.

Talarico’s Reach Among Young Voters

Talarico actively engaged with younger audiences through online platforms, which are popular among young men—a demographic Democrats typically struggle to attract. Political strategist Mike Madrid noted that this approach helped boost Talarico’s profile nationally.

“I think it’s one of the reasons he’s been launched to a national profile,” Madrid stated. “He’s on these platforms. He’s very popular and well received by the hosts and presumably the audience.”

In the broader political landscape, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Governor Greg Abbott among voters under 35, with a margin of 71 percent to 21 percent. Similarly, Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 65 percent to 18 percent in this age group.

Notably, younger voters represent a smaller portion of the current poll compared to the previous one. In July, ages 18 to 34 accounted for 18 percent of responses, whereas in September, this dropped to 14 percent.

Shift in Campaign Messaging

Paxton’s connection with young conservative voices, especially online, has historical roots. In 2023, as his impeachment loomed, Gen Z influencers rallied behind him, allegedly incentivized with payments to repost his social media content.

In contrast, Talarico has adjusted his message on key issues. Although initially staunchly opposing the trans athlete bill in May 2021, he later expressed a different perspective on Fox News, indicating concern over safety and fairness.

Election Dynamics and Poll Insights

Talarico’s polling success reflects consistent positioning among moderate Republicans. The Barbara Jordan Center survey aligns with several others in September, all indicating a close race with Talarico slightly ahead. Trafalgar Group’s poll, Emerson College’s survey, and others echo similar trends.

Republican strategist Alex Patton warns against interpreting Talarico’s success as a broader Democratic shift in Texas.

“There is no evidence Texas voters are warming to the national Democratic message,” Patton noted. “The data shows that Texas voters are responding to Talarico as a candidate and support for the opposition is softening.”

Paxton finds strength among older voters, leading Talarico 57 percent to 37 percent in voters over 55. He also maintains control among white voters, while Talarico excels with Latino and Black voters.

Historically, older Texans dominate midterm turnouts, with younger voters comprising a smaller portion of actual voting populations. This pattern was evident in 2022, where younger voters represented only 41 percent of the turnout.

Looking Ahead

The Cook Political Report lists Texas as one of the seven toss-up states in the Senate race this year, indicating a close contest. Republican groups committed $47.2 million to advertising as of mid-September, far exceeding Democratic spending.

Talarico’s campaign holds a financial advantage with $21.5 million on hand, compared to Paxton’s $1.8 million as of June.

Despite favorable conditions, Texas remains a challenging state for Democrats, but has significant potential in this election cycle.

Texans will cast their votes on November 3.