Texas Gubernatorial Race: Abbott vs. Hinojosa

Current Poll Standings

Texas Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the Texas gubernatorial race according to a new poll. This poll comes three months before voters decide whether to grant Abbott a fourth term or elect the state’s first Democratic governor in over 30 years.

A late July Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely Texan voters found Abbott at 49 percent while Hinojosa trails at 43 percent. Additionally, 5 percent of voters remain undecided and 3 percent support Libertarian Pat Dixon. Abbott has an unfavorable rating of 51 percent, compared to Hinojosa’s 28 percent unfavorable rating. However, Hinojosa remains less known among voters.

“Where Abbott has a potential image problem, Hinojosa presently has a voter knowledge problem,” Texas State University professor Wallace Golding told Newsweek.

The Texas gubernatorial race is defined by demographic and generational divides. Abbott leads among white voters by 24 points yet trails Hinojosa among Latino and Black voters by 14 and 59 points, respectively. Gender differences are also apparent with Hinojosa leading among women by 11 points while Abbott has a 24-point advantage among men.

Historical Context and Party Dynamics

Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Democrats believe that declining national approval ratings for Trump could fuel momentum. Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, noted major differences between the 2026 and 2022 races, highlighting Abbott’s past advantage due to anti-Biden sentiments versus current challenges due to anti-Trump headwinds.

“In 2026, Hinojosa does not have nearly the name recognition or the money that O’Rourke had, but the political climate is much more favorable for Democrats,” Calvin Jillson from Southern Methodist University explained.

Other Poll Results

Additional polls illustrate a close race, although Abbott maintains a consistent lead. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted from July 15 to July 17 shows Abbott leading Hinojosa 45 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. A New York Times/Siena College poll from June noted Abbott with a 7-point lead.

Political dynamics are closely tied to Texas’ Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, both seen as competitive, with Paxton endorsed by Trump. Jones stresses the importance of a high-profile Senate race in motivating Democratic voters.

Financial Landscape

Abbott’s campaign benefits from high recognition and strong fundraising, entering the race with $106 million. Texans for Greg Abbott has spent over $54.5 million, leaving $67.2 million in cash. Hinojosa, though much less known, has spent less than $4 million, with $3 million remaining.

Jones noted, “The principal impact of the U.S. Senate race on the gubernatorial contest will be the infusion of at least $100 million additional dollars into the campaign efforts of Texas Democrats.”

Texas voters will soon determine the state’s political future in the upcoming election.