Talarico’s Tight Lead in Texas Senate Race

Talarico’s Poll Lead Narrows in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico’s once-leading position over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race has shrunk by one point, according to recent opinion polls. The decrease in undecided voters has also been noted. Democrats eye Texas as a key victory in the upcoming Senate elections. Texas traditionally holds Republican strength, having last elected a Democratic senator in 1988.

On Friday, the Texas Public Opinion Research released a survey of 1,007 likely voters from September 19-22. With a margin of error of 3.6 percent, Talarico was reported to have 49 percent of the vote against Paxton’s 44 percent. Previously, Talarico held a six-point lead in the August poll conducted with 1,000 voters.

The percentage of undecided voters decreased from seven percent in August to three percent this month. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown gained two percentage points. Talarico’s reducing support is within the margin of error.

Texas Southern University Survey and Other Polls

A separate poll from Texas Southern University shows Talarico ahead by one point, securing 47 percent against Paxton’s 46 percent, plus three percent for Brown. Conducted from September 15-19 with 1,800 likely voters, the margin of error was 2.31 percent. Previous results from July showed Talarico with a two-point lead.

Over the same timeline, undecided voter proportions dropped from six percent to four percent.

Both campaigns were contacted for comments by Newsweek outside normal office hours.

Additional Poll Results

Currently, Talarico leads Paxton across multiple polls, though some results are within the margin of error. Emerson College’s survey showed Talarico leading with 47 percent to Paxton’s 46 percent. AARP’s poll placed Talarico four points ahead, and YouGov/Univision revealed a five-point lead.

Debate Proposal

During the Texas Tribune Festival, Talarico challenged Paxton to a televised debate on Fox News. He accused Paxton of evading debates, stating, “So let’s go to Ken Paxton’s safe space. Let’s do Bret Baier on Fox News.”

Campaign Funding

The Federal Election Commission figures reported that by June 30, Talarico’s campaign raised $31,853,507, surpassing Paxton’s $9,147,100. Out-of-state donations featured heavily in Talarico’s campaign, notably from California.