Talarico Gains Momentum in Texas Senate Race

James Talarico is gaining attention in the highly observed Texas Senate race. Numerous prediction markets and election experts are now describing the contest as more competitive, even though Texas has historically leaned Republican.

Kalshi, a prediction market, currently estimates a 59 percent chance of victory for Democratic State Representative James Talarico in the upcoming November election. In contrast, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton stands at a 41 percent chance. Similarly, Polymarket gives Talarico a 60 percent probability with Paxton at 41 percent, acknowledging that market shares can exceed 100 percent due to spreads.

Fox News has revised its Power Rankings to view the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up.” The Cook Political Report also updated its assessment to “Toss-Up” from its prior “Lean Republican” stance.

Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model now places Texas in the “Lean Democrat” column. The model gives Talarico around a 70 percent probability of securing the seat, compared with Paxton’s 30 percent. Silver notes that Texas remains a predominantly Republican state, but Paxton’s numerous scandals and Talarico’s strong fundraising offer a slight advantage for Democrats when combined with current polling data.

Recent surveys back these shifts. RealClearPolling, which compiles data from various polls, lists Talarico at 47.6 percent support, compared with Paxton’s 45 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to both Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns for comments by email outside of usual working hours and is awaiting their responses.

Campaign Dynamics

The contentious race has frequently seen candidates critiquing each other both on the campaign trail and online. Talarico recently highlighted a mistake by Paxton, who had to delete a post on the platform X after a spelling error. Paxton incorrectly wrote “Cyprus,” the island country, instead of “Cypress,” a location in the Houston area. Talarico responded, “It’s Cypress, not ‘Cyprus.’ Given your luxury travels in Europe, it’s no wonder you’re unfamiliar with Texas.”

Potential Shift in Texas Politics

If Talarico wins, he would be the first Democrat to claim a Senate seat in Texas since 1988. Historically, Republicans have dominated both Senate and presidential races in the state, with the latter dating back to 1980.

Despite the state’s Republican tendency, Talarico is mounting a strong challenge against Paxton, who overcame longtime Republican Senator John Cornyn in the primary runoff. Paxton is aligned with President Donald Trump, receiving his endorsement for the Senate race.

Talarico positions himself as a faith-oriented, pragmatic Democrat, focusing his campaign on issues related to affordability and the economy. Conversely, Paxton enters the general election with a complicated history, including a 2023 impeachment and acquittal, resolution of a securities-fraud case in 2024, as well as allegations of bribery and corruption. He has denied any wrongdoing in these matters.

For more information, reach out to Newsweek editors John Fitzpatrick and James Debens.