SpaceX Rocket on Collision Course with the Moon

A SpaceX rocket is set to collide with the moon after launching more than a year ago from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The rocket’s upper stage will unintentionally hit the moon on Wednesday, creating a crater and releasing a plume of dust and debris. Scientists and skygazers are eager to observe this event.

Bill Gray, a space tracking expert, predicts an impact speed of 5,400 mph (8,700 kph) near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb. This collision will happen in the early morning hours, with the eastern regions of the U.S. and Canada, as well as much of South America, having the best views.

Although this piece of space debris is not deemed dangerous, it highlights the increased congestion in space. “Things are getting crowded up there,” Gray mentioned. He plans to watch the aftermath from New Brunswick, Canada.

Space experts explained that SpaceX never intended for the rocket to hit the moon. The crash could have been avoided if the upper stage had entered orbit around the sun. This is the second known accidental rocket collision with the moon, following a Chinese rocket segment that created craters on the lunar far side in 2022.

Astronomers are fortunate that the upcoming collision will occur on the moon’s near side. It will have the energy equivalent to three tons of TNT. The impact flash is predicted to be too faint to see, but the plume of debris could be visible to telescopes for several minutes.

“The gravity on the moon is low and there is no wind to blow the dust away,” said Benjamin Fernando from Los Alamos National Laboratory, encouraging observations from both professionals and amateurs. “Part of the reason for our interest is to figure out how much of a hazard debris impacts pose to future astronauts.”

Fernando expects an impact crater roughly 90 feet across and 16 feet deep (27 meters across and 5 meters deep), which will be visible to spacecraft, but not from Earth. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter will capture images before and after the event.

The abandoned rocket segment is approximately 40 feet (12 meters) long and weighs around 10,000 pounds (4,500 kilograms). It launched two private lunar landers on January 15, 2025. Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost successfully landed, while Japan-based ispace’s lander crashed.

With the moon a focal point for future exploration, experts emphasize the need to improve debris monitoring and traffic control. The U.S. and China are in a race to land astronauts on the moon in upcoming years. SpaceX and Blue Origin aim to provide the lander for NASA’s Artemis IV mission.

Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell stated, “This impact will not be a problem, but in a future with long-term bases on the moon, similar impacts could pose issues. We need to prevent rocket stages from being left in chaotic orbits.”

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